Aalesund vs Start Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Aalesund 2-0 Start.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Aalesund, 28% draw, 32% Start — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aalesund at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aalesund vs Start
Line-ups
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 7K. NessøD
- 2M. AndresenD
- 28D. MbackeD
- 3Ó. GuðmundssonD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 21M. ChristensenM
- 18E. HagenM
- 19S. KartumM
- 27H. M. ReedF
- 8I. SkotheimF
- 45P. AuklandD
- 22E. EngqvistD
- 4S. HaramD
- 30S. K. KnutsenF
- 26T. LarsenG
- 17E. MyrlidF
- 16J. ØrsahlD
- 15E. OsenbrochM
- 38T. LeikangerM
- 45F. ManojlovićG
- 27O. ToureD
- 29E. ReitanD
- 28J. HusebøD
- 3A. UjkaniD
- 12D. DashaevD
- 10S. MvouéM
- 23E. SegbergM
- 11E. SchulzeM
- 17J. CorneliusF
- 9N. KoutsakosF
- 5S. GranheimD
- 8N. JojićF
- 20H. LorentzenF
- 4J. MeyerD
- 2F. PålerudD
- 24S. Strand-KolbjørnsenG
- 18M. UglandM
- 35S. SamuyiwaM
- 13S. GriesbeckM
Form going into Aalesund vs Start
Aalesund
- L1-2away to Viking30 August 2026
- D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ham-Kam9 August 2026
Start
- W4-1KFUM Oslo30 August 2026
- L0-1Fredrikstad8 August 2026
- L0-3Viking1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aalesund | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 18 |
| 16 | Start | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Start
- 4 September 2026Aalesund 2–0 StartEliteserien
- 21 March 2026Start 1–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 23 August 2025Start 3–1 Aalesund1. Division
- 24 May 2025Aalesund 1–1 Start1. Division
- 21 October 2024Aalesund 3–1 Start1. Division
- 6 April 2024Start 1–3 Aalesund1. Division
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Start
Aalesund
- M. Christensen7 goals2 assists
Start
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.