Brann vs Lillestrom Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Brann 1-2 Lillestrom.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Brann, 29% draw, 28% Lillestrom — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Brann at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brann vs Lillestrom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DyngelandG
- 23T. PedersenD
- 3F. KnudsenD
- 20V. DragsnesD
- 17J. SoltvedtD
- 16K. EriksenM
- 18J. SorensenM
- 25N. WassbergM
- 14U. MathisenF
- 29N. HolmF
- 9N. CastroF
- 12S. NilsenG
- 2L. CornicD
- 41A. WilhelmsenD
- 43B. HaugenM
- 10K. M. IngasonF
- 11B. FinneF
- 22S. MagnussonF
- 7K. KjartanssonM
- 39J. LaegreidF
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 2L. RangerD
- 4E. B. GarnasD
- 5S. FossD
- 11F. ElkaerD
- 29Y. IbrahimajM
- 22D. BassiM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 20Felix VaM
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 1S. HagerupG
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 3S. OttesenD
- 16H. MellandM
- 6H. WoxenM
- 21F. OttossonM
- 26Y. PaintsilM
- 10T. OlsenF
- 15G. NordhF
Form going into Brann vs Lillestrom
Brann
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026
- W3-2PAOK27 August 2026
- D1-1away to PAOK20 August 2026
- W3-0Ham-Kam16 August 2026
- W4-2away to Apollon Limassol11 August 2026
Lillestrom
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
- W2-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë20 August 2026
- D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
- L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
What these results say
- Brann went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Brann scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Brann | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 33 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brann vs Lillestrom
- 9 November 2024Brann 2–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 12 May 2024Lillestrom 0–2 BrannEliteserien
- 1 October 2023Lillestrom 0–2 BrannEliteserien
- 11 June 2023Brann 2–2 LillestromEliteserien
- 20 May 2023Brann 2–0 LillestromNM Cupen
Leading scorers: Brann and Lillestrom
Brann
GoalsAssists
- N. Holm83
- K. Ingason83
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá85
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lillestrom won 2–1 at Brann. The model had leaned towards a win for Brann at 43% and given a win for Lillestrom 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Felix Va 6' for Lillestrom, F. Gulbrandsen 22' for Lillestrom, B. Finne 89' for Brann. On expected goals it finished 1.88–1.33.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.