5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Brann vs Lillestrom Eliteserien prediction & result

Brann Stadion, Bergen
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Brann 1-2 Lillestrom.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Brann, 29% draw, 28% Lillestrom — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Brann at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brann0%Draw5%Lillestrom95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
🔁E. B. Garnasout: S. Kristiansen
6'
⚽Felix Va
22'
⚽F. Gulbrandsen
Noah Jean Holm
45+5'
🔁T. Pedersenout: L. Cornic
46'
56'
Ylldren Ibrahimaj
•Ulrik Mathisen
57'
61'
🔁D. Bassiout: Y. Paintsil
61'
🔁F. Gulbrandsenout: T. Olsen
🔁U. Mathisenout: K. M. Ingason
68'
🔁N. Holmout: B. Finne
68'
75'
🔁G. Nyheimout: F. Ottosson
🔁N. Wassbergout: S. Magnusson
76'
🔁N. Castroout: J. Laegreid
83'
⚽B. Finne
89'

Match stats — Brann vs Lillestrom

73%Possession27%
24Shots8
3On target4
11Corners0
1.88xG1.33

Goals against chances

Brann1 from 1.88 xGless than the chances were worth
Lillestrom2 from 1.33 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Brann 4-3-3
  • 1M. DyngelandG
  • 23T. PedersenD
  • 3F. KnudsenD
  • 20V. DragsnesD
  • 17J. SoltvedtD
  • 16K. EriksenM
  • 18J. SorensenM
  • 25N. WassbergM
  • 14U. MathisenF
  • 29N. HolmF
  • 9N. CastroF
Substitutes
  • 12S. NilsenG
  • 2L. CornicD
  • 41A. WilhelmsenD
  • 43B. HaugenM
  • 10K. M. IngasonF
  • 11B. FinneF
  • 22S. MagnussonF
  • 7K. KjartanssonM
  • 39J. LaegreidF
Coach: Eirik Horneland
Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 4E. B. GarnasD
  • 5S. FossD
  • 11F. ElkaerD
  • 29Y. IbrahimajM
  • 22D. BassiM
  • 14G. NyheimM
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 20Felix VaM
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
Substitutes
  • 1S. HagerupG
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 6H. WoxenM
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 26Y. PaintsilM
  • 10T. OlsenF
  • 15G. NordhF
Coach: Hans Odegaard

Form going into Brann vs Lillestrom

Brann

  • D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026
  • W3-0Ham-Kam16 August 2026
  • W3-2Rosenborg2 August 2026

Lillestrom

  • L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
  • L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Brann2082103731+626
5Lillestrom2010282826+232

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brann vs Lillestrom

  • 5 September 2026Brann 1–2 LillestromEliteserien
  • 9 November 2024Brann 2–1 LillestromEliteserien
  • 12 May 2024Lillestrom 0–2 BrannEliteserien
  • 1 October 2023Lillestrom 0–2 BrannEliteserien
  • 11 June 2023Brann 2–2 LillestromEliteserien
  • 20 May 2023Brann 2–0 LillestromNM Cupen

Leading scorers: Brann and Lillestrom

Brann

  • N. Holm6 goals2 assists

Lillestrom

  • Vá5 goals5 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.