Silkeborg
vs
Aarhus
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Silkeborg 1–2 Aarhus
The model makes it 27% Silkeborg, 26% draw, 47% Aarhus — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Silkeborg 1.28, Aarhus 1.85.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Aarhus: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Silkeborg's rating is built from 46 Danish Superliga matches and Aarhus's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 470 matches.
Key facts
- Silkeborg are 9th on 15 points from 14 games; Aarhus are 8th on 15 points from 14 games — Superliga.
- Silkeborg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lyngby.
- Aarhus have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to AC Horsens.
- Last 6 meetings: Aarhus 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Aarhus 2–2 Silkeborg.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Silkeborg vs Aarhus
Has the model earned this number?
Aarhus at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Silkeborg vs Aarhus
Silkeborg
Superliga
- W1-0Lyngby6 November 2026
- L1-4away to Odense1 November 2026
- D1-1FC Nordsjaelland25 October 2026
- L0-4away to Sonderjyske18 October 2026
- D3-3AC Horsens11 October 2026
Aarhus
Superliga
- W2-0AC Horsens8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Brondby1 November 2026
- W2-1Viborg25 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Copenhagen18 October 2026
- W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
What these results say
- Silkeborg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Silkeborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Silkeborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Silkeborg | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Silkeborg vs Aarhus
- 5 September 2026Aarhus 2–2 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 21 November 2025Silkeborg 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 5 October 2025Aarhus 3–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 1 December 2024Silkeborg 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 15 September 2024Aarhus 1–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 16 May 2024Aarhus 0–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
Leading scorers: Silkeborg and Aarhus
Silkeborg
GoalsAssists
- O. Ross72
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Silkeborg against 1.85 for Aarhus. Silkeborg's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.12 for Aarhus.
How the model reaches 47% for Aarhus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Aarhus to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Silkeborg's ratings add 7 points and Aarhus's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage33%−4
- Silkeborg's ratings40%+7
- Aarhus's ratings47%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Silkeborg at home · Aarhus away
League matches only, Superliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SilkeborgAarhus
Silkeborg are 9th after 14 Superliga matches (between 6th and 10th so far); Aarhus are 8th after 14 (between 2nd and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Silkeborg 14, Aarhus 14.
Silkeborg score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Aarhus have let in 4 there.
Aarhus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Silkeborg have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Silkeborg
- at FC Midtjylland6 Dec · Superligawin 13%
- vs Randers FC21 Feb · Superligawin 46%
- at Viborg28 Feb · Superligawin 20%
- vs Brondby7 Mar · Superligawin 29%
Aarhus
- vs Randers FC5 Dec · Superligawin 60%
- vs Twente10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 26%
- at Inter Club d'Escaldes17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 59%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.