Sivasspor
vs
Bodrum FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Sivasspor 0–1 Bodrum FK
The model makes it 30% Sivasspor, 30% draw, 40% Bodrum FK — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sivasspor 1.02, Bodrum FK 1.27.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Bodrum FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sivasspor's rating is built from 51 TFF 1. Lig matches and Bodrum FK's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sivasspor are 18th on 13 points from 14 games; Bodrum FK are 7th on 21 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Sivasspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Vanspor FK.
- Bodrum FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Boluspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Bodrum FK 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 January 2026, ended Bodrum FK 1–2 Sivasspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK
Has the model earned this number?
Bodrum FK at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK
Sivasspor
1. Lig
- L1-3away to Vanspor FK7 November 2026
- L1-2Boluspor1 November 2026
- L0-4away to Ümraniyespor24 October 2026
- D1-1Sarıyer17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026
Bodrum FK
1. Lig
- W2-1away to Boluspor8 November 2026
- D1-1Ümraniyespor1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Antalyaspor25 October 2026
- W2-1Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026
What these results say
- Sivasspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Sivasspor | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Bodrum FK | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK
- 19 January 2026Bodrum FK 1–2 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 17 August 2025Sivasspor 1–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 11 May 2025Sivasspor 0–0 Bodrum FKSüper Lig
- 25 February 2025Sivasspor 0–1 Bodrum FKTürkiye Kupası
- 13 December 2024Bodrum FK 2–0 SivassporSüper Lig
- 31 October 2018Bodrum FK 2–1 SivassporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Sivasspor and Bodrum FK
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj102
Bodrum FK
GoalsAssists
- V. Aboubakar50
- E. Bilsel41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sivasspor a 0% chance of the title and Bodrum FK 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodrum FK the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Sivasspor against 1.27 for Bodrum FK. Sivasspor's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.25 for Bodrum FK.
How the model reaches 40% for Bodrum FK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bodrum FK to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sivasspor's ratings add 6 points and Bodrum FK's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Sivasspor's ratings34%+6
- Bodrum FK's ratings40%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sivasspor at home · Bodrum FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Sivasspor 14, Bodrum FK 14.
Sivasspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Bodrum FK have let in 1 there.
Bodrum FK score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Sivasspor have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sivasspor
- at Iğdır FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 20%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 31%
- at İstanbulspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 32%
- at Esenler Erokspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 17%
Bodrum FK
- at Kayserispor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 19%
- vs Iğdır FK13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 44%
- at Fatih Karagümrük20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 28%
- at Bursaspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.