Regular Season - 35 · 15 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Spaeri vs FC Iberia 1999 Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

Spaeri Stadium, Tbilisi
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Spaeri 2-2 FC Iberia 1999.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Spaeri, 27% draw, 47% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Spaeri 1.04, FC Iberia 1999 1.61.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Spaeri vs FC Iberia 1999

52%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%0-1 11%1-2 10%

Has the model earned this number?

FC Iberia 1999 at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Spaeri vs FC Iberia 1999

Spaeri

Erovnuli Liga

  • W3-2Dinamo Batumi7 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Samgurali31 October 2026
  • D0-0Gagra23 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Dinamo Tbilisi18 October 2026
  • D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026

FC Iberia 1999

Erovnuli Liga

  • W1-0Gagra9 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 October 2026
  • W3-2Torpedo Kutaisi26 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Dila19 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Meshakhte10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Spaeri failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Iberia 1999 went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Iberia 1999 won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Iberia 1999 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Spaeri32613134151-1031
2FC Iberia 19993218594633+1359

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spaeri vs FC Iberia 1999

  • 13 September 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
  • 12 June 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–1 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
  • 22 April 2026Spaeri 0–2 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
  • 20 April 2021Spaeri 0–1 FC Iberia 1999David Kipiani Cup

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spaeri a 0% chance of the title and FC Iberia 1999 32.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Spaeri a 96.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 89.7% after a win, 97.3% after a draw, 99.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 97.3%, 1 points higher than before the match.

For FC Iberia 1999 the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 32.8% going in: 45.0% after a win, 23.8% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.8%, 9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Spaeri v FC Iberia 1999 has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 24% / 27% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Spaeri's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Spaeri win26%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. FC Iberia 1999 win47%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Spaeri FC Iberia 1999
0.47 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.55
2.29 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.49
1.04 Model expected goals (this match) 1.61

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Iberia 1999 the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Spaeri against 1.61 for FC Iberia 1999. Spaeri's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.49 for FC Iberia 1999.

Spaeri carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.36 for FC Iberia 1999.

How the model reaches 47% for FC Iberia 1999 to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Iberia 1999 to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Spaeri's ratings add 8 points and FC Iberia 1999's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage32%−4
  3. Spaeri's ratings40%+8
  4. FC Iberia 1999's ratings47%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.