Cyprus
vs
Montenegro
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Cyprus 1-4 Montenegro.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Cyprus, 30% draw, 40% Montenegro — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cyprus 1.05, Montenegro 1.27.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Cyprus vs Montenegro
Has the model earned this number?
Montenegro at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cyprus vs Montenegro
Cyprus
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1away to Armenia12 November 2026
- W2-1Latvia5 October 2026
- W2-0Armenia2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Latvia28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Montenegro25 September 2026
Montenegro
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Latvia12 November 2026
- D0-0Armenia5 October 2026
- W2-1away to Latvia2 October 2026
- W3-2away to Armenia28 September 2026
- W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026
What these results say
- Cyprus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Montenegro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Montenegro won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Montenegro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cyprus | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 1 | Montenegro | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cyprus vs Montenegro
- 25 September 2026Montenegro 2–1 CyprusUEFA Nations League
- 17 November 2020Montenegro 4–0 CyprusUEFA Nations League
- 5 September 2020Cyprus 0–2 MontenegroUEFA Nations League
- 23 March 2018Cyprus 0–0 MontenegroFriendlies
The result against the call
Montenegro won 4–1 at Cyprus.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montenegro the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cyprus against 1.27 for Montenegro. Cyprus's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.09 for Montenegro.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 40% for Montenegro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Montenegro to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cyprus's ratings add 3 points and Montenegro's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- Cyprus's ratings36%+3
- Montenegro's ratings40%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.