Spain
vs
England
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Spain 2–1 England
The model makes it 45% Spain, 27% draw, 28% England — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Spain 1.68, England 1.20.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Spain: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Spain's rating is built from its last 6 matches; England's from its last 6 matches.
Key facts
- Spain are top on 15 points from 5 games; England are 2nd on 12 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Czech Republic.
- England are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Croatia.
- Last 4 meetings: Spain 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended England 2–3 Spain.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spain vs England
Has the model earned this number?
Spain at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Spain vs England
Spain
UEFA Nations League
- W2-0away to Czech Republic12 November 2026
- W2-1away to Croatia6 October 2026
- W3-1Czech Republic3 October 2026
- W4-1Croatia29 September 2026
- W3-2away to England26 September 2026
England
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Croatia12 November 2026
- W3-0Czech Republic6 October 2026
- W7-0away to Croatia3 October 2026
- W2-0away to Czech Republic29 September 2026
- L2-3Spain26 September 2026
What these results say
- Spain won every one of these 5 matches.
- Spain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- England scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- England won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for England had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | England | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Spain vs England
- 26 September 2026England 2–3 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 14 July 2024Spain 2–1 EnglandEuro Championship
- 15 October 2018Spain 2–3 EnglandUEFA Nations League
- 8 September 2018England 1–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Spain and England
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
England
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane71
- A. Gordon31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spain the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Spain against 1.20 for England. Spain's attack/defence rating is 1.73/0.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.75/0.72 for England.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 45% for Spain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Spain to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Spain's ratings add 2 points and England's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level39%+1
- Spain's ratings41%+2
- England's ratings45%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.