Versailles
vs
Rodez
Coupe de France prediction & result
Final score: Versailles 3-2 Rodez.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Versailles, 26% draw, 35% Rodez — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Versailles 1.60, Rodez 1.50.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Coupe de France predictions, then other matches
Model insights: Versailles vs Rodez
Has the model earned this number?
Versailles at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Versailles vs Rodez
Versailles
Ligue 3
- L0-1away to Caen7 November 2026
- W4-0Aubagne31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos17 October 2026
- W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026
Rodez
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to Clermont Foot7 November 2026
- W1-0Dunkerque30 October 2026
- W2-1away to Dijon24 October 2026
- L0-3Montpellier19 October 2026
- L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026
What these results say
- Versailles won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Versailles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rodez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Versailles and Rodez
Versailles
No player in Ligue 3's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Rodez
GoalsAssists
- I. Baldé50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Versailles beat Rodez 3–2. The goals: K. Rocha Santos 4' for Versailles, J. Mendes 35' for Rodez, N. Nsingi 44' for Rodez, B. Cisse 72' for Versailles, A. Zakharyan 90+1' for Versailles.
How the call on Versailles v Rodez has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 26% / 35%: the biggest move is Versailles's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Versailles win39%▲ +4
- Draw26%=
- Rodez win35%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Versailles the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Versailles against 1.50 for Rodez. Versailles's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.64 for Rodez.
How the model reaches 39% for Versailles to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Versailles to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Versailles's ratings take away 3 points and Rodez's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Versailles's ratings42%−3
- Rodez's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.