Sparta Praha vs Zlin Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Sparta Praha, 27% draw, 19% Zlin — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sparta Praha at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Zlin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44Jakub SurovčíkG
- 2Martin SuchomelD
- 19Adam ŠevinskýD
- 25Asger SørensenD
- 17John MercadoD
- 18Andy IrvingM
- 38Hugo SochurekM
- 7Josimar AlcócerM
- 10Adam KarabecM
- 22Lukáš HaraslínM
- 14Jonatan Braut BrunesF
- 5Santiago EnemeM
- 11Matěj RynešD
- 29Matyáš VojtaF
- 36Garang KuolM
- 24Dominik HollýM
- 47Krisztián HegyiG
- 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
- 15Viktor VitályosD
- 3Pavel KadeřábekD
- 17Stanislav DostalG
- 23Miloš KopečnýD
- 24Jakub ČernínD
- 39Antonín KřapkaD
- 22Michal FukalaD
- 10Stanislav PetrutaM
- 26Michal CupakM
- 82Marián PišojaM
- 4Tom UlbrichM
- 20Frank AppiahM
- 14Stanley KanuF
- 9Daniel ŠmigaF
- 31Lukas BartosakD
- 53Tomas HellebrandM
- 11Adam GažiM
- 88Tomáš PoznarF
- 64Stepan BachurekG
- 21David GrygeraD
- 28Jakub KolarD
- 37Tomas FojtuM
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Zlin
Sparta Praha
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Zlin
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Baník Ostrava25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 24 |
| 16 | Zlin | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Zlin
- 8 February 2026Zlin 0–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 31 August 2025Sparta Praha 3–1 ZlinCzech Liga
- 26 November 2023Sparta Praha 2–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 29 July 2023Zlin 0–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 25 February 2023Zlin 2–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 3 September 2022Sparta Praha 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Zlin
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes62
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Zlin
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sparta Praha beat Zlin 3–1. The model had made a win for Sparta Praha its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Irving 14' for Sparta Praha, D. Smiga 57' for Zlin, J. Brunes 60' for Sparta Praha, A. Karabec (penalty) 66' for Sparta Praha. On expected goals it finished 2.11–0.85.