29 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Hedi-Enneifer
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Stade Tunisien 1-0 ES Zarzis.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Stade Tunisien, 25% draw, 25% ES Zarzis — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stade Tunisien at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stade Tunisien97%Draw3%ES Zarzis0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
J. Belkilani
⚽R. Riahi
28'
34'
🔁S. Charfiout: H. Ghanmi
51'
A. Tajourii
🔁F. Ben Youssefout: Y. Toure
59'
🔁R. Riahiout: A. N'Diaye
59'
61'
🔁Y. El Kassahout: A. Garreb
61'
🔁A. Tajouriiout: M. Jertila
61'
🔁A. Oluwaseunout: Y. Abubakar
S. Sghaier
67'
🔁S. Sghaierout: H. Refai
83'
🔁Y. Dhaflaouiout: M. Khemissi
83'
86'
🔁O. Toureout: K. Sowe
🔁B. Camaraout: B. Hmidi
89'

Line-ups

Stade Tunisien
  • 22N. Farhati
  • 7W. Ouerghemmi
  • 25S. Sghaier
  • 24R. Derbali
  • 3A. Saihi
  • 14B. Camara
  • 17R. Riahi
  • 8Y. Saafi
  • 12Y. Oumarou
  • 29Y. Dhaflaoui
  • 11F. Ben Youssef
Substitutes
  • 16A. Dkhili
  • 19F. Abdi
  • 35H. Refai
  • 6P. Diop
  • 13M. Gharbi
  • 21Y. Toure
  • 9A. N'Diaye
  • 18M. Khemissi
  • 20B. Hmidi
Coach: Toze Marreco
ES Zarzis
  • 22S. Charfi
  • 28L. Rjili
  • 29S. Diouf
  • 25J. Belkilani
  • 6O. Toure
  • 17D. Nyengue
  • 27A. Tajourii
  • 26Y. El Kassah
  • 15A. Oluwaseun
  • 18Y. Dhiflaoui
  • 7H. Labidi
Substitutes
  • 32H. Ghanmi
  • 3Y. Laariadh
  • 24M. Zidi
  • 35H. Mounadi
  • 14Y. Abubakar
  • 20M. Smaali
  • 11A. Garreb
  • 10M. Jertila
  • 9K. Sowe
Coach: Chokri Khatoui

Form going into Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis

Stade Tunisien

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to US Ben Guerdane23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to ES Metlaoui11 October 2026
  • W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026

ES Zarzis

Ligue 1

  • W2-0ES Hammam-Sousse11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Africain20 September 2026
  • L1-2US Monastirienne16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Stade Tunisien7412107+313
13ES Zarzis720568-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis

  • 4 April 2026ES Zarzis 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
  • 4 October 2025Stade Tunisien 3–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1
  • 19 January 2025Stade Tunisien 1–1 ES ZarzisLigue 1
  • 1 September 2024ES Zarzis 1–1 Stade TunisienLigue 1
  • 20 April 2024ES Zarzis 0–3 Stade TunisienCup
  • 2 October 2021Stade Tunisien 0–1 ES ZarzisLigue 2

The result against the call

Stade Tunisien beat ES Zarzis 1–0. The model had made a win for Stade Tunisien its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: R. Riahi 28' for Stade Tunisien.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stade Tunisien a 10.2% chance to finish in the top two: 13.2% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 4.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.2%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For ES Zarzis the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.1% going in: under 1% after a win, 3.6% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.3%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stade Tunisien v ES Zarzis has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Stade Tunisien's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Stade Tunisien win50%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. ES Zarzis win25%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.