30 October 2026, 20:05 UTC

Lille vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
Referee: Jerome Brisard
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lille 1-0 Lens.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Lille, 27% draw, 27% Lens — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Lille at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lille97%Draw3%Lens0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Saud Abdulhamid
Davide Ancelotti
45'
62'
🔁Florian Sotocaout: Junior Kadile
62'
🔁Jean-Clair Todiboout: Kyllian Antonio
69'
🔁Thorgan Hazardout: Franjo Ivanovic
69'
🔁Michaël Cuisanceout: Yassine Titraoui
🔁Ethan Mbappeout: Olivier Giroud
73'
🔁Ngal'ayel Mukauout: Dilane Bakwa
73'
🔁Romain Perraudout: Calvin Verdonk
78'
80'
🔁Amadou Haidaraout: Andrija Bulatović
⚽Olivier Giroud
86'
🔁Hákon Arnar Haraldssonout: Gaëtan Perrin
90+1'

Match stats — Lille vs Lens

62%Possession38%
16Shots5
7On target3
10Corners2
1.71xG0.26

Goals against chances

Lille1 from 1.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Lens0 from 0.26 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lille 4-3-3
  • 1B. ÖzerG
  • 38M. GoffiD
  • 3N. NgoyD
  • 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
  • 15R. PerraudD
  • 17N. MukauM
  • 6N. BentalebM
  • 21B. AndréM
  • 8E. MbappéF
  • 10H. HaraldssonF
  • 35S. DiaouneF
Substitutes
  • 9O. GiroudF
  • 12O. GillG
  • 26I. CossierD
  • 14M. KjærgaardM
  • 28G. PerrinF
  • 7D. BakwaF
  • 11O. SahraouiF
  • 24C. VerdonkD
  • 19B. ÖnalF
Coach: Davide Ancelotti
Lens 3-4-2-1
  • 40R. RisserG
  • 2R. AguilarD
  • 6S. BaidooD
  • 20J. TodiboD
  • 23Saud AbdulhamidM
  • 21A. HaidaraM
  • 27M. CuisanceM
  • 14M. UdolM
  • 10F. ThauvinM
  • 7F. SotocaM
  • 9T. HazardF
Substitutes
  • 32K. AntonioD
  • 5A. BulatovićM
  • 16M. GorgelinG
  • 24J. GraditD
  • 29F. IvanovićF
  • 28J. KadileF
  • 38M. SoaresM
  • 22M. SkóraśF
  • 8Y. TitraouiM
Coach: Yannick Cahuzac

Form going into Lille vs Lens

Lille

Ligue 1

  • D1-1away to Monaco25 October 2026
  • D1-1Stade Brestois 2917 October 2026
  • W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026

Lens

Ligue 1

  • W2-1Paris FC24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Estac Troyes17 October 2026
  • W2-1Lyon9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Lille10631147+721
11Lens104151715+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lens vs Lille

Lens and Lille have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lille has won 5 of them to Lens's 1, with 1 drawn.

The record

Lille won the last one 1–0 on 30 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Lens115510
Lille511105

Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 30 Oct 2026
    Ligue 1    Lille 1–0 Lens
  • 4 Apr 2026
    Ligue 1    Lille 3–0 Lens
  • 20 Sep 2025
    Ligue 1    Lens 3–0 Lille
  • 30 Mar 2025
    Ligue 1    Lille 1–0 Lens
  • 26 Oct 2024
    Ligue 1    Lens 0–2 Lille
  • 29 Mar 2024
    Ligue 1    Lille 2–1 Lens
  • 8 Oct 2023
    Ligue 1    Lens 1–1 Lille

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Lens' attack rates 16% above Lille's, and Lille concede 35% fewer than Lens. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Lens1.150.99
Lille0.990.64

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Lille and Lens

Lille

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Lens

GoalsAssists

  • F. Thauvin57

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lille beat Lens 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lille at 46%. The goal: Olivier Giroud 86' for Lille. On expected goals it finished 1.71–0.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lille a 38.8% chance to finish in the top three: 45.6% after a win, 35.5% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.6%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.

For Lens the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 25.0% going in: 33.2% after a win, 23.0% after a draw, 20.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.6%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lille v Lens has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Lille win46%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Lens win27%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.