Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain.
Before kick-off the model made it 15% Le Havre, 22% draw, 63% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 6.67, 4.55 and 1.59.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Paris Saint Germain at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16A. BodartG
- 15A. SekoD
- 6J. MwangaD
- 5A. ToubaD
- 20D. OuziadM
- 26S. EbonogM
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 97Lamine N'DiayeM
- 38R. FofanaM
- 30S. NakamuraM
- 9J. MajaF
- 24G. ZohouriM
- 14R. NdiayeM
- 93G. GallonG
- 33Hakim DongopandjiF
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 17K. MizutaM
- 78D. MosengoM
- 25M. SamattaF
- 23V. SassoD
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
- 21L. HernándezD
- 12L. DigneD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM
- 11M. AklioucheM
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 24Senny MayuluF
- 22M. GodtsF
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 14D. DouéF
- 87João NevesM
- 4BeraldoD
- 17VitinhaM
- 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
- 51W. PachoD
- 42D. BolyD
- 8Fabián RuizM
Form going into Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
Ligue 1
- L3-4away to Marseille25 October 2026
- L1-3Auxerre18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1
- W2-0Lyon26 October 2026
- W3-1away to Strasbourg17 October 2026
- W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain have met 7 times in the records we hold, Paris Saint Germain has won 6 of them to Le Havre's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Paris Saint Germain won the last one 5–1 on 30 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 26 goals, an average of 3.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 30 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Le Havre 1–5 Paris Saint Germain - 28 Feb 2026
Ligue 1Le Havre 0–1 Paris Saint Germain - 22 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Le Havre - 19 Apr 2025
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Le Havre - 16 Aug 2024
Ligue 1Le Havre 1–4 Paris Saint Germain - 27 Apr 2024
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 3–3 Le Havre - 3 Dec 2023
Ligue 1Le Havre 0–2 Paris Saint Germain
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Paris Saint Germain's attack rates 108% above Le Havre's, and Paris Saint Germain concede 48% fewer than Le Havre. That gives Paris Saint Germain the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 0.71 | 1.28 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.48 | 0.67 |
Leading scorers: Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja40
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paris Saint Germain won 5–1 at Le Havre. The model had made a win for Paris Saint Germain its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Josh Maja 18' for Le Havre, Mika Godts 26' for Paris Saint Germain, Achraf Hakimi 28' for Paris Saint Germain, Achraf Hakimi 55' for Paris Saint Germain, Senny Mayulu 62' for Paris Saint Germain, Achraf Hakimi 69' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 1.91–3.13.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Le Havre a 41.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 31.9% after a win, 39.3% after a draw, 44.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.0%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Paris Saint Germain the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 67.5% going in: 70.4% after a win, 63.3% after a draw, 57.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.4%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 18% / 25% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 15% / 22% / 63%: the biggest move is Paris Saint Germain's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Le Havre win15%▼ −3
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Paris Saint Germain win63%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.