6 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Tre Fiori vs Drita UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

San Marino Stadium, Serravalle
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Tre Fiori 1-4 Drita.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Tre Fiori, 23% draw, 51% Drita — fair odds of 3.85, 4.35 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Drita at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tre Fiori0%Draw1%Drita99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁F. Benedettiniout: J. van Nek
46'
⚽M. Prandelliassist: B. Sami
56'
59'
🔁I. Jashariout: L. Balaj
61'
⚽R. Ovouka
63'
⚽A. Manajassist: K. Abazaj
🔁T. Sykuout: S. Giocondi
69'
77'
🔁K. Abazajout: B. Sheji
77'
🔁A. Manajout: W. Baeten
🔁F. Manciniout: M. Ferri
80'
82'
⚽B. Krasniqiassist: V. Limaj
88'
🔁A. Dabiqajout: R. Broja
90'
⚽B. Krasniqi (pen)

Match stats — Tre Fiori vs Drita

33%Possession67%
2On target9
0Corners9

Line-ups

Tre Fiori 4-5-1
  • 17M. NardiG
  • 2A. D'Addario
  • 6T. SykuD
  • 23A. SirriD
  • 3M. SancisiD
  • 22F. Mancini
  • 8L. CensoniM
  • 4B. SamiM
  • 20F. BenedettiniM
  • 24P. MengucciD
  • 9M. PrandelliF
Substitutes
  • 33M. BerardiG
  • 12F. PesaresiD
  • 16F. DolciniM
  • 77M. FerriD
  • 18M. FrancioniF
  • 11J. van NekF
  • 72S. GiocondiD
Coach: Matteo Cecchetti
Drita 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. MalokuG
  • 2B. KrasniqiD
  • 25A. BytyciD
  • 32J. PellumbiD
  • 26R. OvoukaD
  • 14A. DabiqajM
  • 8V. LimajM
  • 77K. AbazajM
  • 19B. KrasniqiF
  • 7I. JashariM
  • 9A. ManajF
Substitutes
  • 22L. BehluliG
  • 74E. Isufi
  • 3B. ShejiD
  • 4R. BrojaM
  • 10L. BalajM
  • 17O. GrezdaF
  • 24W. BaetenM
  • 28A. MjakiD
  • 55H. SalihuD
Coach: Zekirija Ramadani

Form going into Tre Fiori vs Drita

Tre Fiori

No earlier matches on record this season.

Drita

  • W2-1Floriana28 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Floriana21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Tre Fiori vs Drita

  • 6 August 2026Tre Fiori 1–4 DritaUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.