6 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Jagiellonia vs Rangers UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Jagiellonia 2-1 Rangers.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% Jagiellonia, 16% draw, 14% Rangers — fair odds of 1.43, 6.25 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Jagiellonia at 70% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jagiellonia96%Draw4%Rangers0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽G. Montoia (OG)
5'
Tuur Rommens
⚽E. Fernandez (OG)
13'
⚽K. Szmyt
21'
34'
Tochi Chukwuani
46'
🔁T. Chukwuaniout: C. Devlin
46'
🔁D. Neilout: N. Raskin
46'
🔁D. Yokotaout: F. Curtis
🔁R. Conceicaoout: J. Agbonifo
65'
🔁S. Lozanoout: A. Klynge
65'
76'
🔁T. Aasgaardout: V. Dragojevic
🔁J. Imazout: D. Drachal
80'
🔁N. Prelecout: Y. Sylla
80'
85'
🔁R. McCrorieout: L. Shankland
Yuki Kobayashi
88'
90+2'
Nicolas Raskin

Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Rangers

52%Possession48%
7On target3
1Corners5

Line-ups

Jagiellonia 4-3-3
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 15N. WojtuszekD
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 23G. MontoiaD
  • 27R. ConceicaoD
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 21S. LozanoM
  • 7K. SzmytM
  • 11J. ImazM
  • 99N. PrelecF
Substitutes
  • 2C. PolakM
  • 8D. DrachalM
  • 9D. RallisF
  • 10J. AgbonifoM
  • 17Y. SyllaF
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 53B. KrasiewiczD
  • 80Z. ZalewskiF
  • 85E. KozlowskiM
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec
Rangers 4-2-3-1
  • 1I. PandurG
  • 21D. SterlingD
  • 2R. McCrorieM
  • 37E. FernandezD
  • 25T. RommensD
  • 42T. ChukwuaniM
  • 6D. NeilM
  • 17D. YokotaF
  • 11T. AasgaardM
  • 10M. DiomandeM
  • 9ChermitiF
Substitutes
  • 7L. ShanklandF
  • 14C. DevlinM
  • 20R. NaderiF
  • 22V. DragojevicM
  • 23D. GassamaM
  • 24O. MakhanyaD
  • 28B. MiovskiF
  • 41Z. HuttonD
  • 43N. RaskinM
Coach: Derek McInnes

Form going into Jagiellonia vs Rangers

Jagiellonia

  • W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
  • W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026

Rangers

  • D1-1away to Dundee United31 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jagiellonia and Rangers in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
28JagielloniaUEFA Europa League100112-10
2RangersPremiership641174+313

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · Premiership

Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Rangers

  • 6 August 2026Jagiellonia 2–1 RangersUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Rangers

Jagiellonia

  • K. Szmyt1 goals

Rangers

  • L. Shankland3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.