UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano Primera División prediction & result
Final score: UCV Moquegua 0-2 Cienciano.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% UCV Moquegua, 29% draw, 39% Cienciano — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cienciano at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano
Line-ups
- 1C. GradosG
- 30J. GrandaD
- 13J. LojasD
- 25R. ChipaoD
- 4A. PerlecheM
- 6Jimmy Rangell Jiménez CárdenasM
- 20D. RamírezM
- 3C. EncisoM
- 7E. LastreF
- 11B. AnguloF
- 8C. MejíaF
- 9M. NegronF
- 14Claudio Guillermo Ramírez LlamoccaM
- 35E. SantillánM
- 90J. CollazosF
- 34K. FerreyraM
- 29R. FigueroaG
- 24A. LecarosF
- 88Y. LópezD
- 22E. MontenegroD
- 1G. FalcónG
- 13C. NúñezD
- 3K. BecerraD
- 4M. AmondarainD
- 7C. SouzaM
- 29A. RoblesM
- 39H. CaparóM
- 16M. MartinichM
- 11N. BandieraM
- 17R. SandovalM
- 21C. GarcésF
- 25R. SalazarD
- 30Jean RoncalG
- 18D. La TorreF
- 99Nadhir ColungaF
- 14S. CaveroD
- 88G. BarretoM
- 8G. AguirreM
- 26R. AguilarD
- 19M. SuccarF
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 30 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 46 | +8 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano
- 20 April 2026Cienciano 2–1 UCV MoqueguaPrimera División
Leading scorers: UCV Moquegua and Cienciano
UCV Moquegua
GoalsAssists
- E. Lastre85
Cienciano
GoalsAssists
- C. Garcés184
- A. Hohberg125
- N. Bandiera91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cienciano won 2–0 at UCV Moquegua. The model had made a win for Cienciano its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Neri Bandiera 37' for Cienciano, Carlos Garcés 40' for Cienciano.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave UCV Moquegua a 76.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 65.2% after a win, 79.5% after a draw, 85.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.4%, 9 points higher than before the match.
For Cienciano the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.3% going in: 8.7% after a win, 3.1% after a draw, 1.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.7%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.