8 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Aluminium Arak vs Malavan Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Imam Khomeini, Arak
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Aluminium Arak 1-1 Malavan.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Aluminium Arak, 24% draw, 19% Malavan — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aluminium Arak at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aluminium Arak6%Draw91%Malavan3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽E. Shahriari
🔁S. Jafarikiaout: B. Goudarzi
43'
🔁A. Houshmandout: S. Shahabbasi
46'
🔁H. Bahiraeiout: E. Khodadadian
46'
⚽B. Goudarziassist: E. Khodadadian
52'
65'
🔁M. Beheshtiout: M. Poursorkhi
🔁S. Sadeghiout: R. Zolfipour
71'
77'
🔁A. Ramezaniout: A. Amirzadeh

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Aluminium Arak12453129+317
15Malavan123361218-610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aluminium Arak vs Malavan

  • 26 December 2025Aluminium Arak 0–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 22 November 2025Aluminium Arak 1–1 MalavanHazfi Cup
  • 8 May 2025Aluminium Arak 1–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 27 December 2024Malavan 1–1 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 1 June 2024Malavan 1–1 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 31 December 2023Aluminium Arak 1–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Aluminium Arak and Malavan drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aluminium Arak at 57% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Shahriari 10' for Malavan, B. Goudarzi 52' for Aluminium Arak.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aluminium Arak a 65.1% chance to finish in the top four: 75.2% after a win, 51.1% after a draw, 41.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 51.1%, 14 points lower than before the match.

For Malavan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.4% going in: 2.3% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 22.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 12.7%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Aluminium Arak v Malavan has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Aluminium Arak's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Aluminium Arak win57%▲ +6
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Malavan win19%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.