8 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Nassaji Mazandaran vs ZOB Ahan Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Vatani Stadium
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Nassaji Mazandaran 1-1 ZOB Ahan.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Nassaji Mazandaran, 30% draw, 27% ZOB Ahan — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nassaji Mazandaran at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nassaji Mazandaran4%Draw94%ZOB Ahan2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽R. Jafari
30'
A. Ghaderi
•A. Sarabadani
39'
75'
🔁P. Mokhtariout: A. Azadmanesh
76'
🔁A. Jeddiout: J. Alimohammadi
🔁P. Rezazadehout: F. Emamali
76'
🔁J. Aghaeipourout: F. Najafi
76'
🔁A. Nasiriout: A. Mohammadnejad
80'
80'
🔁R. Jafariout: M. Mohammadi
⚽A. Sarabadani
83'
🔁A. Sadeghiout: Y. Barajeh
90+3'

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Nassaji Mazandaran12264811-312
14ZOB Ahan12174610-410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nassaji Mazandaran vs ZOB Ahan

  • 15 May 2025Nassaji Mazandaran 0–3 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 2 January 2025ZOB Ahan 0–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 1 May 2024ZOB Ahan 0–2 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 12 November 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 1–2 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 13 March 2023ZOB Ahan 1–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 6 October 2022Nassaji Mazandaran 0–0 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Nassaji Mazandaran and ZOB Ahan drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Nassaji Mazandaran at 43% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: R. Jafari 19' for ZOB Ahan, A. Sarabadani 83' for Nassaji Mazandaran.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nassaji Mazandaran a 7.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 17.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.1%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

For ZOB Ahan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.1% going in: 3.6% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 23.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.6%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nassaji Mazandaran v ZOB Ahan has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 41% / 31% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Nassaji Mazandaran's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Nassaji Mazandaran win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. ZOB Ahan win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.