Primera División (Peru) predictions

Sunday 15 November — 2 matches

• 18:00 UTC Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 20:15 UTC Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso — model 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.78 · 3.57 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Monday 16 November — 3 matches

• 18:00 UTC UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 20:15 UTC Cusco vs ADT — model 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.85 · 4.55. Edge: Cusco
• 20:15 UTC UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau — model 33% / 33% / 34%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.03 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach

Wednesday 18 November — 1 match

• 20:00 UTC Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar — model 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.70 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–9 November: the model called the result of 1 of 9 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 48 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 56% of results.

• Atletico Grau 3–0 Cusco — the model said 33% / 30% / 37%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• ADT 1–1 Sporting Cristal — the model said 29% / 26% / 45%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• FC Cajamarca 2–0 Alianza Atletico — the model said 33% / 24% / 43%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• FBC Melgar 2–1 Juan Pablo II College — the model said 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
• Cienciano 1–2 Sport Huancayo — the model said 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–1 Alianza Lima — the model said 23% / 28% / 49%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Sport Boys 0–0 UTC Cajamarca — the model said 56% / 25% / 19%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Deportivo Garcilaso 0–0 Comerciantes Unidos — the model said 55% / 24% / 21%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Universitario 2–2 UCV Moquegua — the model said 68% / 21% / 11%, most likely 2-0: result missed.

Primera División (Peru) so far

Top of the table

• 1. Alianza Lima — 69 pts from 33 (20W 9D 4L, goals 54–24)
• 2. Universitario — 61 pts from 33 (17W 10D 6L, goals 59–39)
• 3. FBC Melgar — 57 pts from 33 (16W 9D 8L, goals 56–38)
• 4. Deportivo Garcilaso — 55 pts from 33 (16W 7D 10L, goals 50–35)
• 5. Sporting Cristal — 51 pts from 33 (15W 6D 12L, goals 63–48)

The model's chance of finishing first in the Primera Division: Tabla Anual, from 10,000 simulations of the 9 matches left: Alianza Lima over 99.9%.

Leading scorers: E. Castillo (Alianza Lima) 21 goals, C. Garcés (Cienciano) 18 goals, A. Valera (Universitario) 18 goals.