Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Union Berlin, 32% draw, 29% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Union Berlin at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04
Line-ups
- 1F. RønnowG
- 18J. JuranovićD
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 2F. UduokhaiD
- 15T. RotheD
- 6A. KemleinM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 9Livan BurcuM
- 8R. KhediraM
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongF
- 29E. Latte LathF
- 24R. SkovM
- 21T. SkarkeM
- 13A. SchäferM
- 31M. RaabG
- 27M. LjubiÄiÄF
- 19J. HabererM
- 49Linus GutherF
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 1L. KariusG
- 5T. BeckerD
- 25N. KatićD
- 4H. KuruçayD
- 21D. LjubičićM
- 23S. El-FaouziM
- 13S. TanakaM
- 8R. GosensM
- 19K. KaramanM
- 24A. AouchicheM
- 20J. AdamuF
- 39M. WöberD
- 43M. AyhanD
- 14J. BachmannM
- 33Vitalie BeckerD
- 29J. Dina EbimbeM
- 10E. DžekoF
- 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
- 22K. MüllerG
- 38L. VozarM
Form going into Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04
Union Berlin
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
FC Schalke 04
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC Augsburg30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04
- 19 February 2023Union Berlin 0–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 27 August 2022FC Schalke 04 1–6 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 13 February 2021Union Berlin 0–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 18 October 2020FC Schalke 04 1–1 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 7 June 2020Union Berlin 1–1 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
The result against the call
FC Schalke 04 won 3–1 at Union Berlin. The model had leaned towards a win for Union Berlin at 39% and given a win for FC Schalke 04 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Robin Gosens 25' for FC Schalke 04, Adil Aouchiche 46' for FC Schalke 04, Tim Skarke 90+6' for Union Berlin, Maximilian Wöber 90+13' for FC Schalke 04.
How the call on Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04 has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 32% / 29%: the biggest move is Union Berlin's chance of winning, down 15 points.
- Union Berlin win39%▼ −15
- Draw32%▲ +7
- FC Schalke 04 win29%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.