Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Borussia Dortmund, 30% draw, 22% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Dortmund at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Line-ups
- 1G. KobelG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 21Fábio SilvaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 41M. AlbertF
- 14M. BeierF
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 33A. MeyerG
- 8F. NmechaM
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 49L. ReggianiD
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 17L. CurdaM
- 28L. UlrichM
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 40G. VidovićM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 30S. MarinoF
- 18M. PieringerF
- 27S. TiggesF
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerM
- 1M. SchubertG
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 29C. LippmannD
- 20F. GötzeD
- 7O. Batista MeierM
- 6T. BaackM
- 8L. ĐurićM
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
SC Paderborn 07
All competitions we cover
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
- 2 February 2021Borussia Dortmund 3–2 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
- 28 August 2020Borussia Dortmund 1–1 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
- 31 May 2020SC Paderborn 07 1–6 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 22 November 2019Borussia Dortmund 3–3 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 28 October 2015Borussia Dortmund 7–1 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- F. Nmecha40
SC Paderborn 07
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Paderborn 07 3–0. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Fábio Silva 5' for Borussia Dortmund, Felix Nmecha 80' for Borussia Dortmund, Felix Nmecha 89' for Borussia Dortmund.
How the call on Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 30% / 22%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Borussia Dortmund win48%▲ +6
- Draw30%▼ −2
- SC Paderborn 07 win22%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.