Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Borussia Dortmund, 30% draw, 22% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 48% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Line-ups
- 1G. KobelG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 21Fábio SilvaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 41M. AlbertF
- 14M. BeierF
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 33A. MeyerG
- 8F. NmechaM
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 49L. ReggianiD
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 17L. CurdaM
- 28L. UlrichM
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 40G. VidovićM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 30S. MarinoF
- 18M. PieringerF
- 27S. TiggesF
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerM
- 1M. SchubertG
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 29C. LippmannD
- 20F. GötzeD
- 7O. Batista MeierM
- 6T. BaackM
- 8L. ĐurićM
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
SC Paderborn 07
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
- 12 September 2026Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 2 February 2021Borussia Dortmund 3–2 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
- 28 August 2020Borussia Dortmund 1–1 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
- 31 May 2020SC Paderborn 07 1–6 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 22 November 2019Borussia Dortmund 3–3 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 28 October 2015Borussia Dortmund 7–1 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund
- S. Guirassy2 goals2 assists
- F. Nmecha2 goals
SC Paderborn 07
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.