19 September 2026, 19:45 UTC

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Union Santa Fe 1-2 Independiente.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Union Santa Fe, 29% draw, 32% Independiente — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Union Santa Fe at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union Santa Fe0%Draw4%Independiente96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Lucas Menossi
14'
21'
🔁Chimy Ávilaout: Iván Morales
37'
Leonardo Godoy
45+2'
🔁Josias Palaisout: Matías Abaldo
•Joaquin Mosqueira
45+8'
45'
🔁Facundo Zabalaout: Ramiro Martino
⚽Marcelo Estigarribaassist: Joaquin Mosqueira
49'
51'
⚽Santiago Gabriel Montielassist: Leonardo Godoy
57'
⚽Maximiliano Mezaassist: Matías Abaldo
🔁Joaquin Mosqueiraout: Victor Malcorra
58'
🔁Brahian Cuelloout: Mauro Luna Diale
59'
Cristian Tarragona
65'
🔁Marcelo Estigarribaout: Erik Ramirez
68'
70'
Iván Marcone
71'
Juan Migue Arrayago
75'
Matías Abaldo
79'
🔁Mateo Pérez Curciout: Rubén David Martínez
79'
🔁Santiago Gabriel Montielout: Lautaro Millán
🔁Julián Palaciosout: Misael Aguirre
80'
🔁Lucas Ayalaout: Bruno Pittón
80'

Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Independiente

56%Possession44%
21Shots8
4On target4
6Corners1

Line-ups

Union Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 4M. RochaD
  • 26J. LuduenaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 20J. PalaciosM
  • 17J. MosqueiraM
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 19M. EstigarribiaF
  • 25C. TarragonaF
Substitutes
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 36M. AimarD
  • 12B. PittonD
  • 27T. RubioD
  • 44T. FagioliD
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 10I. MalcorraM
  • 11M. Luna DialeM
  • 34M. PeresuttiM
Coach: Leonardo Madelon
Independiente 4-3-3
  • 33R. ReyG
  • 29L. GodoyD
  • 13J. FedorcoD
  • 35J. ArrayagoD
  • 22F. ZabalaD
  • 16M. Perez CurciM
  • 23I. MarconeM
  • 8M. MezaM
  • 7S. MontielF
  • 6C. AvilaF
  • 24J. PalaisF
Substitutes
  • 77S. MeleG
  • 36S. ValdezD
  • 4S. AriasD
  • 2F. CalderonD
  • 10L. CabralM
  • 32D. MartinezM
  • 14L. MillanM
  • 9I. MoralesF
  • 19M. AbaldoF
Coach: Jadson Viera

Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Independiente

Union Santa Fe

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
  • W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
  • W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026

Independiente

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
  • L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
  • D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Lanus17 August 2026

What these results say

  • Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Union Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Union Santa Fe166372424021
7Independiente166551516-123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Independiente

  • 22 May 2026Union Santa Fe 0–2 IndependienteCopa Argentina
  • 10 March 2026Independiente 4–4 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 November 2024Independiente 3–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 June 2023Union Santa Fe 3–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 September 2022Union Santa Fe 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 26 October 2021Independiente 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Union Santa Fe vs Independiente record →

Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Independiente

Union Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tarragona172

Independiente

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos115

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Independiente won 2–1 at Union Santa Fe. The model had leaned towards a win for Union Santa Fe at 39% and given a win for Independiente 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Marcelo Estigarriba 49' for Union Santa Fe, Santiago Gabriel Montiel 51' for Independiente, Maximiliano Meza 57' for Independiente.

How the call on Union Santa Fe v Independiente has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Independiente's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Union Santa Fe win39%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Independiente win32%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.