Orgryte IS vs Sirius Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Orgryte IS 1-2 Sirius.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Orgryte IS, 30% draw, 31% Sirius — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Orgryte IS at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orgryte IS vs Sirius
Line-ups
- 44H. GustafssonG
- 18A. AnderssonD
- 33S. LagerlundD
- 25J. HammarD
- 6M. DyrestamD
- 19A. AndreassonD
- 14D. PaulsonM
- 23O. Parker-PriceM
- 8B. LaturnusM
- 22T. SanaM
- 17W. HofvanderF
- 3J. AzulayD
- 29Marlon EbietomereD
- 21W. KenndalM
- 2M. ParkerD
- 34A. RahmG
- 5C. StyffeD
- 7C. VindehallM
- 11David ObouF
- 9L. AnderssonF
- 34D. CelicG
- 5H. CastegrenD
- 2Mohamed SoumahD
- 4T. AnkerD
- 22O. KrusnellD
- 24V. SvenssonM
- 10M. HeierM
- 6M. LindbergM
- 30Z. VancsaF
- 9J. UnekenF
- 11I. BjerkeboF
- 29Ake AnderssonF
- 1I. DiawaraG
- 17N. JönssonF
- 21C. NildénM
- 7J. PerssonF
- 15S. SandbergD
- 18A. WikmanM
- 25O. AdinduF
- 20V. EkströmD
Form going into Orgryte IS vs Sirius
Orgryte IS
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
- L1-3away to IF Brommapojkarna16 August 2026
Sirius
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
- L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
- L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
- L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026
What these results say
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 20 |
| 2 | Sirius | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Sirius
- 11 May 2026Sirius 2–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 17 October 2016Sirius 4–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 15 May 2016Orgryte IS 1–2 SiriusSuperettan
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Sirius
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Sirius
GoalsAssists
- I. Bjerkebo157
- R. Ure152
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sirius won 2–1 at Orgryte IS. The model had leaned towards a win for Orgryte IS at 39% and given a win for Sirius 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Henrik Castegren 7' for Sirius, Victor Svensson 62' for Sirius, S.Lagerlund 90+4' for Orgryte IS.
How the call on Orgryte IS v Sirius has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is Orgryte IS's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Orgryte IS win39%▼ −6
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Sirius win31%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.