Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Universitatea Craiova 0-1 Arges Pitesti.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Universitatea Craiova, 25% draw, 25% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 50% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti
Line-ups
- 90Răzvan SavaG
- 3Oleksandr RomanchukD
- 28Adrian RusD
- 6Vladimir ScreciuD
- 23Samuel TelesM
- 5Anzor MekvabishviliM
- 20Alexandru CicâldăuM
- 11Nicușor BancuM
- 30David MateiF
- 22Simon ElisorF
- 10Ștefan BaiaramF
- 17Carlos MoraF
- 8Tudor BăluțăM
- 7Steven NsimbaF
- 29Luca BăsceanuM
- 9Assad Al-HamlawiF
- 21Laurenţiu PopescuG
- 1Alexandru MaximG
- 24Nikola StevanovićD
- 18Mihnea RădulescuM
- 34Cătălin CăbuzG
- 6Mario TudoseD
- 15Guilherme GaruttiD
- 3Leard SadriuD
- 27Rober SierraM
- 2Costinel TofanM
- 22Vadim RațăM
- 11Yanis PîrvuM
- 23Florin BorțaM
- 92Taylor LuvamboF
- 99Robert MoldoveanuF
- 16Ionuț RădescuM
- 26Dorinel OanceaD
- 69Oluwatobiloba AlagbeD
- 96Silviu BalaureM
- 19Claudiu MicovschiF
- 31Matteo ȘerbanG
- 33Luca CrăciunG
- 4Evagoras AntoniouD
- 20Patrick DulceaM
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti
Universitatea Craiova
- D1-1away to KuPS6 August 2026
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
- D2-2Levski Sofia29 July 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia22 July 2026
Arges Pitesti
- W1-0Csikszereda31 July 2026
- W1-0Petrolul Ploiesti24 July 2026
- L0-2away to FCSB17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 10 | Arges Pitesti | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti
- 9 August 2026Universitatea Craiova 0–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 27 April 2026Arges Pitesti 0–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 13 March 2026Universitatea Craiova 0–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 21 November 2025Arges Pitesti 1–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 18 July 2025Universitatea Craiova 3–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 22 March 2025Universitatea Craiova 4–3 Arges PitestiFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Arges Pitesti
Universitatea Craiova
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Arges Pitesti
- R. Moldoveanu3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.