9 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Benfica vs Academico Viseu Primeira Liga prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Benfica 2-2 Academico Viseu.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Benfica, 15% draw, 10% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 1.33, 6.67 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Benfica at 75% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benfica8%Draw90%Academico Viseu2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽V. Pavlidisassist: G. Prestianni
10'
15'
Alejandro Mestanza
19'
Anthony Correia
Georgiy Sudakov
25'
Tomás Araújo
45+1'
55'
⚽R. Pereiraassist: C. Kahraman
⚽G. Prestianniassist: E. Barrenechea
58'
🔁G. Sudakovout: A. Schjelderup
64'
64'
🔁A. Mestanzaout: A. Ceitil
67'
⚽Andre Clovisassist: Robinho
73'
🔁C. Kahramanout: C. Ferreira
73'
🔁A. Zamoraout: Pedro Barcelos
73'
🔁R. Pereiraout: L. Gohi
🔁Rafa Silvaout: D. Lukebakio
76'
🔁L. Barreiroout: R. Rios
76'
79'
André Ceitil
79'
🔁Andre Clovisout: D. Steczyk
🔁G. Prestianniout: J. Duran
82'
🔁A. Bahout: A. Dedic
82'
90+2'
Igor Milioransa

Match stats — Benfica vs Academico Viseu

62%Possession38%
28Shots8
11On target4
10Corners2
3.11xG1.18

Goals against chances

Benfica2 from 3.11 xGless than the chances were worth
Academico Viseu2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 24S. SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 44T. AraujoD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 5E. BarrenecheaM
  • 27Rafa SilvaM
  • 10G. SudakovM
  • 25G. PrestianniM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 13J. KaminskiM
  • 22J. DuranF
  • 16ManuM
  • 62J. NetoD
  • 72AnisioF
  • 33Gabriel Indio
  • 11D. LukebakioF
  • 17A. DedicD
Coach: Marco Silva
Academico Viseu 4-3-3
  • 98EwertonG
  • 75Robinho
  • 41A. CorreiaD
  • 44R. PereiraD
  • 66I. MilioransaD
  • 14S. MesseguemM
  • 45A. MestanzaM
  • 8C. KahramanM
  • 31Joao GuilhermeF
  • 33Andre ClovisF
  • 10A. ZamoraF
Substitutes
  • 1M. LavinG
  • 58Matheus SampaioG
  • 2N. MichelisD
  • 6A. CeitilM
  • 11D. SteczykF
  • 18C. FerreiraM
  • 22N. MortimerF
  • 21T. DomingosD
  • 5Pedro BarcelosD
Coach: Bruno Pinheiro

Form going into Benfica vs Academico Viseu

Benfica

  • W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
  • W5-0FC St. Gallen30 July 2026
  • L1-2away to FC St. Gallen23 July 2026

Academico Viseu

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Benfica6510214+1716
8Academico Viseu622279-28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benfica vs Academico Viseu

  • 9 August 2026Benfica 2–2 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Benfica and Academico Viseu

Benfica

  • V. Pavlidis8 goals2 assists
  • G. Prestianni5 goals2 assists
  • L. Barreiro2 goals1 assists

Academico Viseu

  • André Clóvis2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.