UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal Primera División prediction & result
Final score: UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting Cristal.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% UTC Cajamarca, 27% draw, 45% Sporting Cristal — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting Cristal at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Á. CamposG
- 35G. ParedesD
- 3M. GanozaD
- 2B. DuarteD
- 6F. CavagnaD
- 15J. CerroM
- 16A. FigueraM
- 22D. CamachoM
- 10M. LliuyaM
- 7J. NunezM
- 9M. de JesúsF
- 11A. ArroyoF
- 88L. ArceM
- 29I. BarriosG
- 21R. BettocchiG
- 13D. CaroD
- 17L. GarroD
- 18S. GálvezF
- 19A. MuñozF
- 1D. EnríquezG
- 8L. SosaD
- 20M. AraujoD
- 5R. LutigerD
- 90Cris SilvaD
- 7S. GonzálezM
- 6A. ÁlvarezM
- 19Y. YotúnM
- 23M. CastroM
- 22M. HoyosF
- 16L. IbericoF
- 29H. BarcosF
- 33C. BautistaG
- 21C. CabellosM
- 77J. CuestaF
- 18J. GonzálezD
- 27GabrielM
- 25G. TávaraM
- 11I. ÁvilaF
- 96L. AbramD
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 33 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 14 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 48 | +15 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal
- 19 April 2026Sporting Cristal 3–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 23 August 2025Sporting Cristal 2–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 6 April 2025UTC Cajamarca 4–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 25 August 2024Sporting Cristal 4–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 31 March 2024UTC Cajamarca 1–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal
UTC Cajamarca
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos134
- L. Iberico110
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sporting Cristal a 8.6% chance to finish in the top four: 11.9% after a win, 4.6% after a draw, 2.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.9%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.