Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Sport Boys 1-3 Alianza Atletico.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Sport Boys, 29% draw, 28% Alianza Atletico — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sport Boys at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22D. MeliánG
- 17E. SabaD
- 3C. ZambranoD
- 26H. RiojasD
- 13M. LlontopD
- 24O. MoraM
- 10J. AlarcónM
- 11L. UrrutiM
- 77Y. CeliM
- 99C. CuevaM
- 30P. LizaF
- 14R. DíazF
- 4R. AlfaniD
- 5F. IllanesM
- 29N. LoyolaD
- 61J. NolascoG
- 36Nicolas PazM
- 47M. TraucoD
- 2Luciano Francesco Zambrano AliagaD
- 37Adrián Jesús Santana ValenzuelaM
- 95D. PrietoG
- 16S. FernándezD
- 25W. GuzmánD
- 6J. LujánD
- 24A. GordilloD
- 15H. LupúM
- 23A. MuñozM
- 10Germán DíazM
- 22J. del CastilloM
- 17C. PenillaM
- 27J. IngrattiF
- 29J. MolinaF
- 21E. PerlecheD
- 20Jimmy PérezM
- 40J. QuiñónesD
- 9V. RobaldoF
- 28J. RossiG
- 19J. MendietaD
- 11G. LariosF
- 8F. FloresM
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sport Boys | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 42 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 | 48 | +1 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
- 6 October 2026Alianza Atletico 3–0 Sport BoysCopa De La Liga
- 27 September 2026Sport Boys 3–0 Alianza AtleticoCopa De La Liga
- 19 April 2026Alianza Atletico 0–1 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 16 November 2025Sport Boys 0–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 12 July 2025Alianza Atletico 1–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico
Sport Boys
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Alianza Atletico
GoalsAssists
- C. Penilla95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alianza Atletico won 3–1 at Sport Boys. The model had leaned towards a win for Sport Boys at 43% and given a win for Alianza Atletico 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Percy Liza 16' for Sport Boys, Jorge del Castillo 59' for Alianza Atletico, Jorge del Castillo 68' for Alianza Atletico, Guillermo Larios 90+3' for Alianza Atletico. Sent off: Carlos Alberto Desio (Sport Boys) 69'. On expected goals it finished 1.76–1.73.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alianza Atletico a 5.1% chance to finish in the top four: 9.8% after a win, 3.9% after a draw, 1.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.8%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sport Boys v Alianza Atletico has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Sport Boys's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sport Boys win43%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Alianza Atletico win28%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.