Cusco vs Alianza Lima Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Cusco 1-2 Alianza Lima.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Cusco, 30% draw, 35% Alianza Lima — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Cusco at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cusco vs Alianza Lima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28P. DíazG
- 21J. ZevallosD
- 8A. FuentesD
- 2C. GamarraD
- 3R. LagosD
- 55J. MontañoM
- 26N. SilvaM
- 14C. DiezM
- 10I. ColmanM
- 7J. ManzanedaM
- 9F. CallejoF
- 16O. ValenzuelaM
- 22L. ColittoM
- 6Á. AmpueroD
- 77J. HerreraM
- 24M. RuidíasD
- 99Miguel SilveiraM
- 88D. SotoM
- 11J. TévezF
- 13A. VidalG
- 1A. DuarteG
- 17L. AdvínculaD
- 6R. GarcésD
- 3M. AntoniD
- 13M. HuamánD
- 25G. GentileM
- 4G. ChávezM
- 7F. GaiborM
- 20J. VélezM
- 27K. QuevedoF
- 8E. CastilloF
- 31C. CarbajalD
- 15J. CastilloM
- 2N. DíazD
- 99F. GirottiF
- 14D´Alessandro MontenegroD
- 22C. NeiraM
- 9L. RamosF
- 29J. ArchimbaudM
- 12Á. de la CruzG
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cusco | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 51 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 54 | 24 | +30 | 69 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cusco vs Alianza Lima
- 19 April 2026Alianza Lima 8–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 19 July 2025Cusco 2–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 9 February 2025Alianza Lima 3–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 3 November 2024Alianza Lima 1–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 24 May 2024Cusco 3–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cusco and Alianza Lima
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo182
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo216
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cusco a 41.5% chance to finish in the top four: 56.0% after a win, 37.2% after a draw, 28.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.6%, 12.9 points lower than before the match.
For Alianza Lima the question was the chance to finish top of the Primera Division: Tabla Anual, 94.3% going in: 98.1% after a win, 95.6% after a draw, 90.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 98.1%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.