Valerenga vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Valerenga 1-1 Fredrikstad.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Valerenga, 29% draw, 32% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Valerenga at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
Line-ups
- 1O. HedvallG
- 3H. SjåtilD
- 4A. Kiil OlsenD
- 55S. JarlD
- 2K. FinnssonD
- 11G. ZahidM
- 15O. HolmM
- 10C. LangeM
- 77L. HarenM
- 17M. GrundetjernF
- 7H. NielsenF
- 26D. GjengaarF
- 13S. LønningG
- 37I. NäsbergD
- 9G. RajkovicF
- 19E. RashaniF
- 90O. SaeterF
- 24P. StrandM
- 5K. TshiembeD
- 28M. WestergaardM
- 77M. BørsheimG
- 38I. AmundsenD
- 4F. HolméD
- 28S. OwusuD
- 16D. EidM
- 6S. Leach HolmM
- 14M. NilssonM
- 13S. SørløkkM
- 7B. ThoresenF
- 23H. SkogvoldF
- 18B. FiabemaF
- 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
- 5S. RafnD
- 37O. Skari HansenM
- 30J. TorkildsenG
- 11L. WestF
- 9S. LaghzaouiM
- 21J. JezierskiM
- 19F. GhebreyohannesD
- 12U. FredriksenD
Form going into Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
Valerenga
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
- L3-4Molde30 August 2026
- D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
Fredrikstad
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
What these results say
- Valerenga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
- 4 July 2026Valerenga 3–1 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
- 12 April 2026Fredrikstad 1–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 23 September 2025Valerenga 1–2 FredrikstadNM Cupen
- 5 July 2025Valerenga 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 9 April 2025Fredrikstad 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Fredrikstad
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valerenga and Fredrikstad drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Valerenga at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Solomon Owusu 52' for Fredrikstad, Sebastian Jarl 76' for Valerenga. Sent off: Isak Helstad Amundsen (Fredrikstad) 82'.
How the call on Valerenga v Fredrikstad has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Valerenga's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Valerenga win39%▼ −6
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Fredrikstad win32%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.