20 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Viking vs Lillestrom Eliteserien prediction & result

Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Viking 3-0 Lillestrom.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Viking, 28% draw, 27% Lillestrom — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Viking at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viking99%Draw1%Lillestrom0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kristoffer Haugenassist: Zlatko Tripić
8'
⚽Gianni Stensness
43'
Joe Bell
71'
🔁Joe Bellout: Tobias Moi
76'
76'
🔁Eric Kitolanoout: Yildren Ibrahimaj
76'
🔁Frederik Elkaerout: Winston Robin Yaw Paintsil
🔁Zlatko Tripićout: Simen Kvia Egeskog
76'
⚽Peter Christiansen (pen)
79'
80'
🔁Gustav Kjolstad Nyheimout: Gustav Nordh
80'
🔁Daniel Bassiout: Henrik Molvaer Melland
🔁Henrik Bjørdalout: Niklas Fuglestad
83'
🔁Kristoffer Askildsenout: Jakob Segadal Hansen
83'
84'
Felix Vá
87'
🔁Lars Rangerout: Sturla Ottesen
🔁Kristoffer Haugenout: Vetle Auklend
88'

Match stats — Viking vs Lillestrom

45%Possession55%
23Shots15
9On target5
7Corners6

Line-ups

Viking 4-4-2
  • 1A. ØstbøG
  • 5H. HeggheimD
  • 6G. StensnessD
  • 25H. FalchenerD
  • 28K. HaugenD
  • 16H. BjørdalM
  • 8J. BellM
  • 7K. AskildsenM
  • 10Z. TripićM
  • 20P. ChristiansenF
  • 22E. BotheimF
Substitutes
  • 24Vetle AuklendD
  • 30Ľ. BelkoG
  • 27J. DalandD
  • 23N. FuglestadF
  • 33J. HansenM
  • 2H. HaugenD
  • 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
  • 29T. MoiM
  • 11R. PostemaF
Coach: B. Aarsheim
Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 28R. GabrielsenD
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 11F. ElkærD
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 22D. BassiM
  • 14G. NyheimM
  • 20VáM
  • 10T. Lehne OlsenF
Substitutes
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 15G. NordhF
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 26Y. PaintsilM
  • 18K. KrygårdM
  • 29Y. IbrahimajF
  • 1S. HagerupG
  • 5S. FossD
  • 25S. AkanjiF
Coach: H. Ødegaard

Form going into Viking vs Lillestrom

Viking

All competitions we cover

  • W8-1Kristiansund BK13 September 2026
  • L1-3away to VfB Stuttgart9 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Sandefjord4 September 2026
  • W2-1Aalesund30 August 2026
  • W3-1Dinamo Zagreb26 August 2026

Lillestrom

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Torreense17 September 2026
  • W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
  • L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
  • W2-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë27 August 2026

What these results say

  • Viking scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Viking conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Viking.
  • Lillestrom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lillestrom had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Viking2620246927+4262
4Lillestrom2614393935+445

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Viking vs Lillestrom

  • 22 July 2026Lillestrom 1–2 VikingEliteserien
  • 29 September 2024Lillestrom 1–4 VikingEliteserien
  • 16 May 2024Viking 1–4 LillestromEliteserien
  • 13 August 2023Lillestrom 1–3 VikingEliteserien
  • 15 April 2023Viking 2–0 LillestromEliteserien

The full Viking vs Lillestrom record →

Leading scorers: Viking and Lillestrom

Viking

GoalsAssists

  • P. Christiansen187
  • S. Kvia-Egeskog93
  • H. Heggheim73

Lillestrom

GoalsAssists

  • Vá85

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Viking beat Lillestrom 3–0. The model had made a win for Viking its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kristoffer Haugen 8' for Viking, Gianni Stensness 43' for Viking, Peter Christiansen (penalty) 79' for Viking.

How the call on Viking v Lillestrom has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Viking's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Viking win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Lillestrom win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.