Sampdoria
vs
Cremonese
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sampdoria 0–1 Cremonese
The model makes it 31% Sampdoria, 30% draw, 39% Cremonese — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sampdoria 1.04, Cremonese 1.25.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Cremonese: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sampdoria's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Cremonese's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Sampdoria are 15th on 11 points from 11 games; Cremonese are 9th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Sampdoria have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Carrarese.
- Cremonese are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Vicenza Virtus.
- Last 6 meetings: Cremonese 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 August 2026, ended Cremonese 2–0 Sampdoria.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sampdoria vs Cremonese
Has the model earned this number?
Cremonese at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sampdoria vs Cremonese
Sampdoria
Serie B
- W1-0away to Carrarese8 November 2026
- W2-0Virtus Entella31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Ascoli27 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol24 October 2026
- L1-2Arezzo18 October 2026
Cremonese
Serie B
- W4-1away to Vicenza Virtus8 November 2026
- W2-0Benevento31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mantova27 October 2026
- L0-1Juve Stabia24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Pisa17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sampdoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sampdoria had two goals or fewer.
- Cremonese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
| 9 | Cremonese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sampdoria
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sampdoria vs Cremonese
- 17 August 2026Cremonese 2–0 SampdoriaCoppa Italia
- 1 May 2025Sampdoria 0–0 CremoneseSerie B
- 22 December 2024Cremonese 1–1 SampdoriaSerie B
- 27 February 2024Sampdoria 1–2 CremoneseSerie B
- 3 September 2023Cremonese 1–1 SampdoriaSerie B
- 8 April 2023Sampdoria 2–3 CremoneseSerie A
Leading scorers: Sampdoria and Cremonese
Sampdoria
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Cremonese
GoalsAssists
- F. Bonazzoli62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sampdoria a 0% chance of the title and Cremonese 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cremonese the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sampdoria against 1.25 for Cremonese. Sampdoria's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.21 for Cremonese.
How the model reaches 39% for Cremonese to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cremonese to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sampdoria's ratings add 5 points and Cremonese's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Sampdoria's ratings34%+5
- Cremonese's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sampdoria at home · Cremonese away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sampdoria 11, Cremonese 11.
Cremonese score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sampdoria have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sampdoria
- at Pisa5 Dec · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Modena8 Dec · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Vicenza Virtus12 Dec · Serie Bwin 44%
Cremonese
- vs Catanzaro5 Dec · Serie Bwin 51%
- at Palermo8 Dec · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Carrarese12 Dec · Serie Bwin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.