Regular Season - 16 · 28 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Slask Wroclaw vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction

Tarczynski Arena

Our model says: Slask Wroclaw 1–2 GKS Katowice

The model makes it 31% Slask Wroclaw, 27% draw, 42% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.35, GKS Katowice 1.65.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to GKS Katowice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Slask Wroclaw's rating is built from 14 Ekstraklasa matches and GKS Katowice's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.

Key facts

Slask Wroclaw are 17th on 10 points from 14 games; GKS Katowice are 8th on 21 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
Slask Wroclaw have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Piast Gliwice.
GKS Katowice have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Jagiellonia.
Last 2 meetings: GKS Katowice 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2025, ended Slask Wroclaw 0–2 GKS Katowice.

More Ekstraklasa predictions

All Ekstraklasa predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Slask Wroclaw vs GKS Katowice

60%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Slask Wroclaw win Draw GKS Katowice win

1–112%
1–29%
0–18%
2–17%
0–27%
2–26%
1–06%

Scores read Slask Wroclaw first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

GKS Katowice at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs GKS Katowice

Slask Wroclaw

Ekstraklasa

D0-0Piast Gliwice7 November 2026
L1-3away to Radomiak Radom2 November 2026
W2-0Wieczysta Kraków25 October 2026
L2-3away to Motor Lublin17 October 2026
L1-4Lech Poznan10 October 2026

GKS Katowice

Ekstraklasa

L0-1away to Jagiellonia8 November 2026
W3-2Widzew Łódź31 October 2026
L0-1away to Korona Kielce24 October 2026
L0-1Pogon Szczecin17 October 2026
W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026

What these results say

Slask Wroclaw failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Slask Wroclaw scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	17	25	-8	10
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	25	20	+5	21

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Slask Wroclaw

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 63% today

Win 54%

Draw 63%

Defeat 69%

GKS Katowice

Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today

Win 7%

Draw 5%

Defeat 4%

From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs GKS Katowice

19 April 2025Slask Wroclaw 0–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
20 October 2024GKS Katowice 0–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and GKS Katowice

Slask Wroclaw

GoalsAssists

P. Banaszak50

GKS Katowice

GoalsAssists

I. Shkurin82
B. Nowak78

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slask Wroclaw a 0% chance of the title and GKS Katowice 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Slask Wroclaw GKS Katowice

0.69 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.9

1.44 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.17

1.35 Model expected goals (this match) 1.65

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw against 1.65 for GKS Katowice. Slask Wroclaw's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.17 for GKS Katowice.

Slask Wroclaw carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.72 for GKS Katowice.

How the model reaches 42% for GKS Katowice to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for GKS Katowice to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Slask Wroclaw's ratings add 6 points and GKS Katowice's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage30%−6
Slask Wroclaw's ratings36%+6
GKS Katowice's ratings42%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Slask WroclawModelGKS Katowice

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

81%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

58%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

35%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

80%

8 of 10 games

60%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Slask WroclawGKS Katowice

14Matches14

2W 4D 8LRecord7W 0D 7L

17 1.2 per gameGoals scored25 1.8 per game

25 1.8 per gameGoals conceded20 1.4 per game

3 of 14Clean sheets1 of 14

2 of 14Failed to score5 of 14

2 of 3Penalties scored4 of 5

27 1.9 per gameYellow cards31 2.2 per game

1Red cards0

5-3-2 12×Usual shape3-4-3 13×

Slask Wroclaw at home · GKS Katowice away

7Played8

2W 3D 2LRecord2W 0D 6L

9–10Goals for – against9–13

3 of 7Clean sheets0 of 8

League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Slask WroclawGKS Katowice

Slask Wroclaw are 17th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 8th and 17th so far); GKS Katowice are 8th after 14 (between 2nd and 13th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Slask Wroclaw 14, GKS Katowice 14.

Slask Wroclaw scored 312128

GKS Katowice conceded 104564

Slask Wroclaw score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); GKS Katowice have let in 4 there.

GKS Katowice scored 213469

Slask Wroclaw conceded 224557

GKS Katowice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Slask Wroclaw have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Slask Wroclaw

at Wisla Plock7 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 29%
vs Gornik Zabrze12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 26%
at Raków Częstochowa30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 21%
at Cracovia Krakow6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 29%

GKS Katowice

vs Legia Warszawa5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 41%
vs Wisla Krakow12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 46%
at Radomiak Radom30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 42%
at Wieczysta Kraków6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.