Cukaricki
vs
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Cukaricki 1–0 Mladost Lucani
The model makes it 52% Cukaricki, 27% draw, 21% Mladost Lucani — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cukaricki 1.72, Mladost Lucani 0.91.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Cukaricki: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cukaricki's rating is built from 52 Serbian SuperLiga matches and Mladost Lucani's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Cukaricki are 7th on 22 points from 15 games; Mladost Lucani are 9th on 18 points from 15 games — Super Liga.
- Cukaricki are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Radnicki NIS.
- Mladost Lucani have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Novi Pazar.
- Last 6 meetings: Cukaricki 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Mladost Lucani 2–2 Cukaricki.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cukaricki vs Mladost Lucani
Has the model earned this number?
Cukaricki at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cukaricki vs Mladost Lucani
Cukaricki
Super Liga
- W2-1Radnicki NIS7 November 2026
- D0-0away to IMT Novi Beograd1 November 2026
- W2-0away to FK Partizan24 October 2026
- W3-0Zemun17 October 2026
- D2-2Macva10 October 2026
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga
- L0-2away to Novi Pazar8 November 2026
- L0-1Radnik Surdulica2 November 2026
- D1-1Vojvodina24 October 2026
- L1-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda18 October 2026
- D0-0OFK Beograd12 October 2026
What these results say
- Cukaricki went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mladost Lucani did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mladost Lucani conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mladost Lucani had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cukaricki | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Mladost Lucani | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cukaricki
Chance to finish in the top six · 48% today
Mladost Lucani
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cukaricki vs Mladost Lucani
- 9 August 2026Mladost Lucani 2–2 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 28 February 2026Cukaricki 3–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 28 September 2025Mladost Lucani 1–1 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 1 February 2025Cukaricki 0–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 23 August 2024Mladost Lucani 3–1 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 26 April 2024Cukaricki 4–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Cukaricki and Mladost Lucani
Cukaricki
GoalsAssists
- U. Miladinović63
Mladost Lucani
GoalsAssists
- Vasil Tasovski40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cukaricki the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Cukaricki against 0.91 for Mladost Lucani. Cukaricki's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.9 for Mladost Lucani.
How the model reaches 52% for Cukaricki to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Cukaricki to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cukaricki's ratings add 6 points and Mladost Lucani's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Cukaricki's ratings47%+6
- Mladost Lucani's ratings52%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cukaricki at home · Mladost Lucani away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Cukaricki 15, Mladost Lucani 15.
Cukaricki score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Mladost Lucani have let in 2 there.
Mladost Lucani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cukaricki have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cukaricki
- at OFK Beograd6 Dec · Super Ligawin 36%
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda6 Feb · Super Ligawin 17%
- at Vojvodina13 Feb · Super Ligawin 18%
- vs Radnik Surdulica20 Feb · Super Ligawin 42%
Mladost Lucani
- vs Zemun6 Dec · Super Ligawin 49%
- at FK Partizan6 Feb · Super Ligawin 19%
- vs IMT Novi Beograd13 Feb · Super Ligawin 27%
- at Radnicki NIS20 Feb · Super Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.