Železničar Pančevo
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Železničar Pančevo 0–1 FK Crvena Zvezda
The model makes it 32% Železničar Pančevo, 33% draw, 35% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 3.13, 3.03 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Železničar Pančevo 0.91, FK Crvena Zvezda 1.01.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Železničar Pančevo vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Železničar Pančevo wins, grey are draws, red are FK Crvena Zvezda wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 35% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Železničar Pančevo vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Železničar Pančevo
- W2-0Macva11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Novi Pazar4 September 2026
- W5-1Radnik Surdulica29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vojvodina23 August 2026
- D2-2away to OFK Beograd9 August 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
- W2-1FK Partizan6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Zemun30 August 2026
- W4-0Cukaricki23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Železničar Pančevo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 11 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Železničar Pančevo vs FK Crvena Zvezda
- 22 April 2026Železničar Pančevo 2–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 14 February 2026Železničar Pančevo 0–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 14 September 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 7–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 26 February 2025Železničar Pančevo 1–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 27 September 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 14 April 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Železničar Pančevo and FK Crvena Zvezda
Železničar Pančevo
- K. Kwaku3 goals2 assists
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Železničar Pančevo carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.42 for FK Crvena Zvezda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.91 goals for Železničar Pančevo and 1.01 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Železničar Pančevo rate 0.45 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.49 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Železničar Pančevo a 0.5% chance of the title and FK Crvena Zvezda 69.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Železničar Pančevo against 1.01 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Železničar Pančevo's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.24 for FK Crvena Zvezda.