18 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca Taça de Portugal prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time3 – 4

Final score: CF Os Belenenses 3-4 Arouca.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% CF Os Belenenses, 27% draw, 51% Arouca — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arouca at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Os Belenenses2%Draw93%Arouca5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Ivan Barbero
⚽César Vinicius Cesinha
49'
Chamito Alfandega
73'
73'
Pedro Santos
⚽Bruninho
76'
88'
⚽Brian Mansilla
⚽David Monteiro
90+4'
90+1'
⚽Brian Mansilla
105'
⚽Fally Mayulu

Line-ups

Arouca
Coach: Vitor Severino

Form going into CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca

CF Os Belenenses

No earlier matches on record this season.

Arouca

Primeira Liga

  • W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Leading scorers: CF Os Belenenses and Arouca

CF Os Belenenses

No leading scorers listed yet.

Arouca

GoalsAssists

  • Barbero50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arouca won 4–3 at CF Os Belenenses. The goals: Ivan Barbero 22' for Arouca, César Vinicius Cesinha 49' for CF Os Belenenses, Bruninho 76' for CF Os Belenenses, Brian Mansilla 88' for Arouca, David Monteiro 90+4' for CF Os Belenenses, Brian Mansilla 90+1' for Arouca, Fally Mayulu 105' for Arouca.

How the call on CF Os Belenenses v Arouca has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 24% / 28% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 22% / 27% / 51%: the biggest move is Arouca's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. CF Os Belenenses win22%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Arouca win51%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.