Academica vs Amarante Taça de Portugal prediction & result
Final score: Academica 3-2 Amarante.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Academica, 25% draw, 23% Amarante — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Academica at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Academica vs Amarante
Academica
Segunda Liga
- W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
Amarante
Segunda Liga
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academica | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 16 |
| 14 | Amarante | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Academica vs Amarante
- 12 April 2026Academica 1–1 AmaranteLiga 3
- 29 March 2026Amarante 1–1 AcademicaLiga 3
- 22 October 2023Amarante 1–0 AcademicaTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Academica and Amarante
Academica
GoalsAssists
- K. Zohi10
- Leandro Silva10
Amarante
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Cunha10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Academica beat Amarante 3–2. The model had made a win for Academica its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: B. Silva 11' for Amarante, G. Cunha 25' for Academica, S. Simao 53' for Amarante, A. Rodrigues 57' for Academica, H. Nunes 66' for Academica.
How the call on Academica v Amarante has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Academica's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- Academica win52%▲ +10
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Amarante win23%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.