Tondela vs Alverca Taça de Portugal prediction & result
Final score: Tondela 2-0 Alverca.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Tondela, 28% draw, 37% Alverca — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Alverca at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Tondela vs Alverca
Tondela
Segunda Liga
- W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
Alverca
Primeira Liga
- W4-1away to Famalicao12 October 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tondela and Alverca in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 11 | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Segunda Liga · Primeira Liga
Head-to-head: Tondela vs Alverca
- 13 February 2026Tondela 1–1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 12 September 2025Alverca 1–0 TondelaPrimeira Liga
- 11 May 2025Tondela 1–2 AlvercaSegunda Liga
- 12 January 2025Alverca 1–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Tondela and Alverca
Tondela
GoalsAssists
- Cascavel10
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tondela beat Alverca 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Alverca at 37% and given a win for Tondela 35%. The goals: Carraca 98' for Tondela, Tiago Dias 105' for Tondela.
How the call on Tondela v Alverca has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Alverca's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Tondela win35%▼ −2
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Alverca win37%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.