AVS vs Moreirense Taça de Portugal prediction & result
Final score: AVS 1-0 Moreirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% AVS, 28% draw, 29% Moreirense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Taça de Portugal predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
AVS at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into AVS vs Moreirense
AVS
Segunda Liga
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
Moreirense
Primeira Liga
- L0-1GIL Vicente9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AVS and Moreirense in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AVS | Segunda Liga | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Segunda Liga · Primeira Liga
Head-to-head: AVS vs Moreirense
- 18 July 2026Moreirense 2–2 AVSFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2026Moreirense 0–0 AVSPrimeira Liga
- 3 January 2026AVS 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 17 May 2025AVS 0–3 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 4 January 2025Moreirense 1–1 AVSPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: AVS and Moreirense
AVS
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Moreirense
GoalsAssists
- N. John30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AVS beat Moreirense 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for AVS at 43%. The goal: Rodrigo Pinho 3' for AVS. Sent off: Maracas (Moreirense) 42'.
How the call on AVS v Moreirense has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is AVS's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- AVS win43%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Moreirense win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.