Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Orlando Pirates 2-1 Kaizer Chiefs.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Orlando Pirates, 26% draw, 15% Kaizer Chiefs — fair odds of 1.69, 3.85 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All South African Premier Soccer League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Orlando Pirates at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24S. ChaineG
- 7D. HottoD
- 6L. SeemaD
- 5N. SibisiD
- 3N. NdabaD
- 20S. SelepeM
- 16T. MbathaM
- 48S. MasilelaM
- 33T. MokobodiM
- 11T. MoremiM
- 9Y. MbuthumaF
- 37S. ZuluD
- 49K. KgosietsileM
- 32S. DladlaG
- 12O. AppollisF
- 23G. LunguF
- 17E. MakgopaF
- 29M. MthiyaneM
- 21M. NkotaF
- 38Mpho PadimeF
- 1B. PetersenG
- 39R. FroslerD
- 84Inácio MiguelD
- 42T. MoloisaneD
- 29P. MakoD
- 5S. MthethwaM
- 6L. MaboeM
- 28Mfundo VilakaziM
- 7M. ShabalalaM
- 13P. MmodiM
- 47W. DubaF
- 77Flávio SilvaF
- 44B. BvumaG
- 23E. ChislettM
- 24R. DortleyD
- 4Z. KwinikaD
- 34T. MabasoM
- 38K. NkgwesaD
- 35F. AbrahamsM
- 17A. VelebayiM
Form going into Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs
Orlando Pirates
Premier Soccer League
- W3-0TS Galaxy13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Marumo Gallants20 September 2026
- W2-0Durban City17 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
Kaizer Chiefs
Premier Soccer League
- D1-1Stellenbosch13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Golden Arrows20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Polokwane City12 September 2026
- W3-2Siwelele6 September 2026
What these results say
- Orlando Pirates won every one of these 4 matches.
- Orlando Pirates scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Orlando Pirates kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kaizer Chiefs went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Kaizer Chiefs failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kaizer Chiefs scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 25 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs
- 26 April 2026Orlando Pirates 1–1 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
- 28 February 2026Kaizer Chiefs 0–3 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 10 May 2025Kaizer Chiefs 2–1 Orlando PiratesCup
- 3 May 2025Kaizer Chiefs 1–2 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 1 February 2025Orlando Pirates 1–0 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
- 9 March 2024Orlando Pirates 3–2 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs
Orlando Pirates
GoalsAssists
- T. Moremi50
- B. Radiopane31
- Y. Mbuthuma30
Kaizer Chiefs
GoalsAssists
- M. Shabalala21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Orlando Pirates beat Kaizer Chiefs 2–1. The model had made a win for Orlando Pirates its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Yanela Mbuthuma 24' for Orlando Pirates, P. Mmodi 30' for Kaizer Chiefs, Tshepang Moremi 55' for Orlando Pirates. Sent off: Inacio Miguel Ferreira Santos (Kaizer Chiefs) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 1.99–1.70.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orlando Pirates a 75.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 78.1% after a win, 72.4% after a draw, 68.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.1%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
For Kaizer Chiefs the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 47.4% going in: 60.7% after a win, 49.1% after a draw, 44.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.8%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier Soccer League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.