West Brom
vs
Bristol City
Championship prediction
Our model says: West Brom 1–0 Bristol City
The model makes it 52% West Brom, 28% draw, 20% Bristol City — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: West Brom 1.56, Bristol City 0.78.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
Edge to West Brom: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. West Brom's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Bristol City's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- West Brom are 5th on 28 points from 15 games; Bristol City are 17th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
- West Brom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Millwall.
- Bristol City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Norwich.
- Last 6 meetings: West Brom 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Bristol City 0–1 West Brom.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: West Brom vs Bristol City
Has the model earned this number?
West Brom at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into West Brom vs Bristol City
West Brom
Championship
- W3-0Millwall7 November 2026
- D1-1Southampton3 November 2026
- W3-1away to West Ham31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Preston24 October 2026
- W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026
Bristol City
Championship
- L0-5Norwich7 November 2026
- L1-2Wolves4 November 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Stoke City24 October 2026
- L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026
What these results say
- West Brom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Brom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Brom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
West Brom
Chance to finish in the top two · 14% today
Bristol City
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs West Brom
Bristol City and West Brom have met 6 times in the records we hold, West Brom has won 3 of them to Bristol City's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
West Brom won the last one 1–0 on 21 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| West Brom | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Mar 2026
ChampionshipBristol City 0–1 West Brom - 26 Dec 2025
ChampionshipWest Brom 1–2 Bristol City - 8 Apr 2025
ChampionshipBristol City 2–1 West Brom - 22 Dec 2024
ChampionshipWest Brom 2–0 Bristol City - 16 Mar 2024
ChampionshipWest Brom 2–0 Bristol City - 16 Sep 2023
ChampionshipBristol City 0–0 West Brom
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, West Brom's attack rates 16% above Bristol City's, and West Brom concede 26% fewer than Bristol City. That gives West Brom the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 0.61 | 1.44 |
| West Brom | 0.71 | 1.06 |
Leading scorers: West Brom and Bristol City
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Brom a 5.1% chance of the title and Bristol City 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for West Brom against 0.78 for Bristol City. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.44 for Bristol City.
How the model reaches 52% for West Brom to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for West Brom to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, West Brom's ratings add 5 points and Bristol City's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- West Brom's ratings45%+5
- Bristol City's ratings52%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
West Brom at home · Bristol City away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
West BromBristol City
West Brom are 5th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Bristol City are 17th after 15 (between 3rd and 23rd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: West Brom 15, Bristol City 15.
West Brom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Bristol City have let in 7 there.
Bristol City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); West Brom have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
West Brom
- at Portsmouth5 Dec · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Cardiff8 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
- at Stoke City12 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
Bristol City
- vs Swansea5 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
- at Derby9 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- at West Ham12 Dec · Championshipwin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.