18 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian Premiership prediction & result

Celtic Park, Glasgow
Full time7 – 1

Final score: Celtic 7-1 Heart of Midlothian.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Celtic, 25% draw, 24% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celtic at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kieran Tierneyassist: Liam Scales
7'
⚽Benjamin Nygrenassist: Dane Murray
10'
34'
Calvin Miller
⚽Callum Osmandassist: Camilo Duran
36'
⚽Callum Osmandassist: Camilo Duran
38'
41'
⚽Laurent mendyassist: Josh Mcpake
⚽Jamie McCart (OG)
45+1'
🔁Callum Osmandout: Jota
45'
45'
🔁Oisin McEnteeout: Tomas Bent Magnusson
Jota
49'
⚽Camilo Duranassist: Kieran Tierney
49'
Mika Baur
51'
Colby Donovan
52'
54'
🔁Calvin Millerout: Rogers Mato
54'
🔁Josh Mcpakeout: Sabah Kerjota
🔁Callum McGregorout: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
60'
🔁Kieran Tierneyout: Landon Emenalo
60'
🔁Camilo Duranout: Kasper Hogh
60'
🔁Haissem Hassanout: James Forrest
70'
71'
🔁Claudio Rafael Soares Bragaout: Amadou Ba-Sy
⚽Benjamin Nygrenassist: Kasper Hogh
83'
84'
🔁Severin Sabri Guendouzout: James wilson

Match stats — Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian

48%Possession52%
18Shots20
10On target5
6Corners3
4.24xG1.27

Goals against chances

Celtic7 from 4.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Heart of Midlothian1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 51Colby DonovanD
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 23H. HassanM
  • 8B. NygrenM
  • 19C. OsmandM
  • 11C. DuránF
Substitutes
  • 12L. EmenaloD
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 9K. HøghF
  • 26S. JohnstoneG
  • 7JotaF
  • 29Shumaira MheukaF
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 18O. SørensenM
  • 6A. TrustyD
Coach: M. O'Neill
Heart of Midlothian 4-4-1-1
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 6O. McEnteeM
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 19S. GuendouzM
  • 10Cláudio BragaF
Substitutes
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 22T. MagnússonM
  • 74R. MatoF
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 9J. WilliamsF
  • 21J. WilsonF
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
Coach: W. Vrancken

Form going into Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian

Celtic

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to Benfica15 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Motherwell11 October 2026
  • L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
  • L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
  • W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026

Heart of Midlothian

Premiership

  • W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Celtic1310122810+1831
4Heart of Midlothian126242622+420

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian

  • 16 May 2026Celtic 3–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 25 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–2 CelticPremiership
  • 7 December 2025Celtic 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 26 October 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 CelticPremiership
  • 29 March 2025Celtic 3–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 23 November 2024Heart of Midlothian 1–4 CelticPremiership

The full Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian record →

Leading scorers: Celtic and Heart of Midlothian

Celtic

GoalsAssists

  • C. Durán76
  • B. Nygren64
  • K. Høgh33

Heart of Midlothian

GoalsAssists

  • Cláudio Braga62
  • C. Miller51
  • J. McPake36

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Celtic beat Heart of Midlothian 7–1. The model had made a win for Celtic its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kieran Tierney 7' for Celtic, Benjamin Nygren 10' for Celtic, Callum Osmand 36' for Celtic, Callum Osmand 38' for Celtic, Laurent mendy 41' for Heart of Midlothian, Jamie McCart (own goal) 45+1' for Celtic, Camilo Duran 49' for Celtic, Benjamin Nygren 83' for Celtic. On expected goals it finished 4.24–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celtic a 67.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 72.3% after a win, 64.2% after a draw, 58.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.3%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

For Heart of Midlothian the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season: 16.8% after a win, 10.8% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.0%.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Celtic v Heart of Midlothian has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Celtic win51%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Heart of Midlothian win24%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.