Regular Season - 13 · 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Frosinone vs Parma Serie A prediction

Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

Our model says: Frosinone 1–0 Parma

The model makes it 54% Frosinone, 26% draw, 20% Parma — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Frosinone 1.82, Parma 0.90.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.

One-sided: Frosinone are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Frosinone's rating is built from 11 Serie A matches and Parma's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.

Key facts

Frosinone are 6th on 20 points from 11 games; Parma are 16th on 8 points from 11 games — Serie A.
Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Cagliari.
Parma have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bologna.
Last 6 meetings: Parma 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 February 2023, ended Frosinone 3–4 Parma.

More Serie A predictions

All Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Frosinone vs Parma

50%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Frosinone win Draw Parma win

1–011%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
3–16%

Scores read Frosinone first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Frosinone at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Frosinone vs Parma

Frosinone

Serie A

L0-1away to Cagliari7 November 2026
W2-0Torino1 November 2026
W5-1Lecce29 October 2026
D4-4away to Atalanta25 October 2026
W4-2Sassuolo16 October 2026

Parma

Serie A

L1-2Bologna7 November 2026
W3-0away to Atalanta2 November 2026
D0-0Udinese28 October 2026
L1-2away to Lazio24 October 2026
L0-3Torino19 October 2026

What these results say

Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Frosinone conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Parma had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	24	15	+9	20
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	9	17	-8	8

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Frosinone

Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today

Win 15%

Draw 11%

Defeat 10%

Parma

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today

Win 26%

Draw 37%

Defeat 41%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Parma

Frosinone and Parma have met 6 times in the records we hold, Parma has won 3 of them to Frosinone's 2, with 1 drawn.

The record

Parma won the last one 4–3 on 24 Feb 2023.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Frosinone	2	1	3	11	12
Parma	3	1	2	12	11

Between them these 6 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.83 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

24 Feb 2023
Serie BFrosinone 3–4 Parma
1 Oct 2022
Serie BParma 2–1 Frosinone
21 Jan 2022
Serie BParma 0–1 Frosinone
20 Aug 2021
Serie BFrosinone 2–2 Parma
5 Dec 2019
Coppa ItaliaParma 2–1 Frosinone
3 Apr 2019
Serie AFrosinone 3–2 Parma

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Frosinone's attack rates 104% above Parma's, and Parma concede 10% fewer than Frosinone. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Frosinone	1.39	1.03
Parma	0.68	0.93

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Frosinone and Parma

Frosinone

GoalsAssists

A. Raimondo80
G. Calò51

Parma

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Frosinone a 0.3% chance of the title and Parma 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Frosinone Parma

1.39 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.68

1.03 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.93

1.82 Model expected goals (this match) 0.90

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Frosinone the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Frosinone against 0.90 for Parma. Frosinone's attack/defence rating is 1.39/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/0.93 for Parma.

Frosinone carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.72 for Parma.

How the model reaches 54% for Frosinone to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Frosinone to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Frosinone's ratings add 10 points and Parma's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 54%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage38%+2
Frosinone's ratings48%+10
Parma's ratings54%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

FrosinoneModelParma

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

76%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

51%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

29%

model, this match

0 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

50%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

FrosinoneParma

11Matches11

6W 2D 3LRecord2W 2D 7L

24 2.2 per gameGoals scored9 0.8 per game

15 1.4 per gameGoals conceded17 1.5 per game

3 of 11Clean sheets2 of 11

3 of 11Failed to score5 of 11

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 2

20 1.8 per gameYellow cards17 1.5 per game

0Red cards1

4-2-3-1 11×Usual shape3-4-2-1 6×

Frosinone at home · Parma away

6Played5

5W 0D 1LRecord1W 0D 4L

16–6Goals for – against5–9

2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

FrosinoneParma

Frosinone are 6th after 11 Serie A matches (between 4th and 17th so far); Parma are 16th after 11 (between 15th and 19th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Frosinone 11, Parma 11.

Frosinone scored 463522

Parma conceded 232343

Frosinone score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Parma have let in 3 there.

Parma scored 002304

Frosinone conceded 225222

Parma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Frosinone have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Frosinone

vs Inter5 Dec · Serie Awin 24%
at Udinese11 Dec · Serie Awin 52%
vs Lazio18 Dec · Serie Awin 35%
at AS Roma2 Jan · Serie Awin 19%

Parma

at AC Milan6 Dec · Serie Awin 17%
vs Fiorentina13 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
at Sassuolo19 Dec · Serie Awin 31%
vs Napoli3 Jan · Serie Awin 19%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.