Sassuolo
vs
Napoli
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sassuolo 1–2 Napoli
The model makes it 21% Sassuolo, 24% draw, 55% Napoli — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.04, Napoli 2.04.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
One-sided: Napoli are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sassuolo's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Napoli's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Sassuolo are 17th on 8 points from 11 games; Napoli are 10th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Sassuolo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AS Roma.
- Napoli have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lazio.
- Last 6 meetings: Napoli 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Napoli 1–0 Sassuolo.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sassuolo vs Napoli
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sassuolo vs Napoli
Sassuolo
Serie A
- L0-3away to AS Roma7 November 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina2 November 2026
- L2-6Lazio27 October 2026
- L0-2away to Como24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026
Napoli
Serie A
- D1-1Lazio8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus1 November 2026
- W4-1away to Monza28 October 2026
- D3-3AS Roma24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sassuolo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.
- Napoli conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Napoli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Napoli vs Sassuolo
Napoli and Sassuolo have met 6 times in the records we hold, Napoli has won 6 of them to Sassuolo's 0.
The record
Napoli won the last one 1–0 on 17 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 |
| Sassuolo | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 Jan 2026
Serie ANapoli 1–0 Sassuolo - 23 Aug 2025
Serie ASassuolo 0–2 Napoli - 28 Feb 2024
Serie ASassuolo 1–6 Napoli - 27 Aug 2023
Serie ANapoli 2–0 Sassuolo - 17 Feb 2023
Serie ASassuolo 0–2 Napoli - 29 Oct 2022
Serie ANapoli 4–0 Sassuolo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Napoli's attack rates 26% above Sassuolo's, and Napoli concede 41% fewer than Sassuolo. That gives Napoli the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sassuolo a 0% chance of the title and Napoli 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sassuolo against 2.04 for Napoli. Sassuolo's attack/defence rating is 1/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.74 for Napoli.
How the model reaches 55% for Napoli to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Napoli to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Sassuolo's ratings add 11 points and Napoli's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Sassuolo's ratings45%+11
- Napoli's ratings55%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sassuolo at home · Napoli away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SassuoloNapoli
Sassuolo are 17th after 11 Serie A matches (between 9th and 17th so far); Napoli are 10th after 11 (between 2nd and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Sassuolo 11, Napoli 11.
Sassuolo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Napoli have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sassuolo
- at Venezia7 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
- at Lecce12 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Parma19 Dec · Serie Awin 40%
- at Inter3 Jan · Serie Awin 10%
Napoli
- vs Lecce5 Dec · Serie Awin 61%
- vs Club Brugge KV8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
- vs AC Milan13 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.