Championship (Scotland)

1. Partick — 31 points from 15 played (9 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 21 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +12. Form, oldest first: D W L W W.
2. Stenhousemuir — 26 points from 15 played (8 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 18 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
3. Raith Rovers — 25 points from 15 played (7 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 21 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: D L W D L.
4. Dunfermline — 25 points from 14 played (6 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost), 15 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: D W W W D.
5. Livingston — 24 points from 15 played (7 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 21 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: D W W D W.
6. Inverness CT — 20 points from 15 played (5 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost), 20 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W W L D L.
7. Ayr Utd — 18 points from 14 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 17 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: D L W L W.
8. Arbroath — 14 points from 14 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost), 11 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
9. Morton — 13 points from 14 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 9 lost), 16 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: W W W W L.
10. Queen's Park — 7 points from 15 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 12 lost), 8 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -17. Form, oldest first: L L L L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 10 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Ayr Utd — chance of finishing top up 0.2, to 0.2%; bottom-three risk down 15.7, to 40.7%.
• Raith Rovers — chance of finishing top down 8.7, to 8.8%; bottom-three risk up 0.8, to 1.4%.
• Morton — chance of finishing top down 0.1, to 0%; bottom-three risk up 7.3, to 74.9%.
• Partick — chance of finishing top up 5.9, to 50.7%.
• Queen's Park — bottom-three risk up 4, to 98.6%.

Season projection

Every one of the 107 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Partick — projected to finish on 68.7 points, from 31 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 50.7% (up 5.9), finishes top four 95.5%, bottom two 0%.
2. Dunfermline — projected to finish on 63.2 points, from 25 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 21.3% (up 0.1), finishes top four 82.5%, bottom two 0%.
3. Livingston — projected to finish on 61.1 points, from 24 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 13.9% (up 2.5), finishes top four 75.9%, bottom two 0%.
4. Raith Rovers — projected to finish on 58.6 points, from 25 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 8.8% (down 8.7), finishes top four 64.6%, bottom two 0.2%.
5. Stenhousemuir — projected to finish on 55.7 points, from 26 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4% (up 1.7), finishes top four 44.9%, bottom two 0.6%.
6. Inverness CT — projected to finish on 52.1 points, from 20 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.2% (down 1.6), finishes top four 27.8%, bottom two 2.1%.
7. Ayr Utd — projected to finish on 43.1 points, from 18 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2% (up 0.2), finishes top four 6.1%, bottom two 17.4%.
8. Arbroath — projected to finish on 37.6 points, from 14 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 1.3%, bottom two 39.3%.
9. Morton — projected to finish on 36.5 points, from 13 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.1), finishes top four 1.4%, bottom two 46.5%.
10. Queen's Park — projected to finish on 24.5 points, from 7 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom two 93.8%.