League Tables
Premiership
Celtic lead on 31 points, 4 ahead of Rangers. The model's chances of finishing first in the regular season: Celtic 59.3%, Rangers 38.8% and Heart of Midlothian 1.4%, from 10,000 simulations of the 123 matches left. The table as it stands, and where the model expects it to finish. Across all 75 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 45% of results. Projections are final positions, not qualification or relegation. How the model works. Upcoming predictions →
- Celtic — 31 points from 13 played (10 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 28 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +18. Form, oldest first: W W D L W.
- Rangers — 27 points from 12 played (8 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 21 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +12. Form, oldest first: W D W D W.
- Falkirk — 21 points from 13 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 20 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
- Heart of Midlothian — 20 points from 12 played (6 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 26 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W L W D L.
- Dundee — 17 points from 12 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 18 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W D L W L.
- Dundee United — 17 points from 12 played (4 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost), 17 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W D W D D.
- St Johnstone — 17 points from 13 played (4 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 17 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: D L D D W.
- St Mirren — 14 points from 13 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost), 12 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L W D L L.
- Motherwell — 13 points from 13 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost), 15 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L L D W D.
- Hibernian — 11 points from 12 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost), 15 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L L L D W.
- Aberdeen — 11 points from 12 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost), 12 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L W L L L.
- Kilmarnock — 9 points from 13 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost), 13 scored, 29 conceded, goal difference -16. Form, oldest first: W L L D L.
What moved
Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed —
not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried
forward rather than restamped. 9 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.
- Dundee United — bottom-three risk up 0.9, to 13.8%.
- Motherwell — bottom-three risk down 0.3, to 29.7%.
- Aberdeen — bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 60.3%.
- Hibernian — bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 21%.
- Celtic — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 59.3%.
Season projection
Every one of the 123 matches this phase has left,
played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each
side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a
title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those
depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.
- Celtic — projected to finish on 72.8 points, from 31 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 59.3% (up 0.1), finishes top six 100%, bottom three 0%.
- Rangers — projected to finish on 70.2 points, from 27 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 38.8%, finishes top six 99.9%, bottom three 0%.
- Heart of Midlothian — projected to finish on 54.5 points, from 20 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.4% (down 0.1), finishes top six 93%, bottom three 0.7%.
- Falkirk — projected to finish on 52.5 points, from 21 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.4%, finishes top six 88.9%, bottom three 0.9%.
- Dundee — projected to finish on 44.1 points, from 17 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top six 53.6%, bottom three 9.2%.
- Dundee United — projected to finish on 43.5 points, from 17 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top six 50.5%, bottom three 13.8%.
- St Johnstone — projected to finish on 41.8 points, from 17 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top six 39.7%, bottom three 15.1%.
- Hibernian — projected to finish on 40.3 points, from 11 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top six 36.3%, bottom three 21%.
- Motherwell — projected to finish on 38.4 points, from 13 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top six 23.6%, bottom three 29.7%.
- Aberdeen — projected to finish on 33 points, from 11 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top six 7.5%, bottom three 60.3%.
- St Mirren — projected to finish on 31.8 points, from 14 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top six 3.5%, bottom three 71.1%.
- Kilmarnock — projected to finish on 29.2 points, from 9 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top six 3.8%, bottom three 78.3%.
Top scorers
- C. Durán (Celtic) — 7 goals, 6 assists.
- J. Murrell (Falkirk) — 7 goals.
- B. Nygren (Celtic) — 6 goals, 4 assists.
- R. Naderi (Rangers) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
- Cláudio Braga (Heart of Midlothian) — 6 goals, 2 assists.
- J. Fowler (St Johnstone) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
- C. Miller (Heart of Midlothian) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
- B. Fink (Dundee) — 4 goals.
- K. Kelsy (Rangers) — 4 goals.
- K. Nisbet (Aberdeen) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
- J. Westley (Dundee) — 4 goals.
- J. McPake (Heart of Midlothian) — 3 goals, 6 assists.
- J. Randall (Dundee United) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
- K. Høgh (Celtic) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
- L. Scales (Celtic) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- A. Lowry (Motherwell) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- C. Wright (Hibernian) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- G. Kiltie (Kilmarnock) — 3 goals.
- J. Wilson (Heart of Midlothian) — 3 goals.
- L. Mendy (Heart of Midlothian) — 3 goals.
Premiership: how many points for the top six?
Chance by final points total · 15 November 2026
42 points has been enough in half of the simulations, 46 in nine out of ten.
49 pts99%
47 pts97%
45 pts87%
43 pts66%
41 pts37%
39 pts14%
37 pts3%
050%100%
The top six go into the Championship group zone.
Premiership: how many points to stay up?
Chance by final points total · 15 November 2026
34 points has been enough in half of the simulations, 37 in nine out of ten.
40 pts99%
38 pts96%
36 pts85%
34 pts62%
32 pts35%
30 pts14%
28 pts4%
050%100%
Above the bottom three in the final table.
Head-to-head records
Every recorded meeting between two Premiership clubs, won-drawn-lost from the first-named side. All head-to-head records.