Kilmarnock sit 12th in the Premiership on 4 points from 6 matches, having scored 5 and conceded 14. The model rates their attack at 0.53× the league average and their defence at 1.73× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — below average at both ends by these numbers. Across their last 5 league matches they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, most recently beating Hibernian 1-0 away. That is 0.67 points a match, scoring 0.83 and conceding 2.33 per game across 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats. That leaves them 14 points behind Celtic at the top, in a table of 12. Among the 12 rated sides in the division that is the 12th-best attack and the 8th-best defence. They scored in 1 of those 5 and kept 1 clean sheet. Next they host Heart of Midlothian in the Premiership on 19 September 2026, a match the model gives them 37%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | St Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 5 | Motherwell | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Hibernian | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Dundee United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
Kilmarnock sit 12 of 12, as the table stands today. Every competition we cover.
Recent league form
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
Last 5 league matches, most recent first.
Next match: Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian
Kilmarnock host Heart of Midlothian at Rugby Park, Kilmarnock on 19 September 2026, 16:45 UTC. The model makes it 37% Kilmarnock, 28% draw and 35% Heart of Midlothian, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1. It projects 1.49 expected goals for Kilmarnock against 1.42. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Full preview and model analysis for Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian
Recent meetings with Heart of Midlothian
- 14 March 2026Kilmarnock 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 3 December 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 18 October 2025Kilmarnock 0–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 18 May 2025Kilmarnock 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 25 January 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–2 KilmarnockPremiership
The last 5 meetings between the two, most recent first.