Hamburger SV
vs
Bayern München
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Hamburger SV 0–2 Bayern München
The model makes it 12% Hamburger SV, 17% draw, 71% Bayern München — fair odds of 8.33, 5.88 and 1.41.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Hamburger SV 0.98, Bayern München 2.95.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Bayern München are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Hamburger SV's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Bayern München's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Hamburger SV are 11th on 12 points from 9 games; Bayern München are top on 21 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Hamburger SV have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to FSV Mainz 05.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayern München 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Hamburger SV 2–2 Bayern München.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hamburger SV vs Bayern München
Has the model earned this number?
Bayern München at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hamburger SV vs Bayern München
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
- W3-1Borussia Mönchengladbach6 November 2026
- L1-3away to Eintracht Frankfurt1 November 2026
- L0-1away to SC Paderborn 0724 October 2026
- W1-0VfB Stuttgart17 October 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
Bayern München
Bundesliga
- W2-1away to FSV Mainz 057 November 2026
- D2-2Borussia Dortmund31 October 2026
- W3-1away to SC Freiburg25 October 2026
- W6-1RB Leipzig17 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hamburger SV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hamburger SV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bayern München went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bayern München scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bayern München conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hamburger SV
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 11% today
Bayern München
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 73% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs Bayern München
- 31 January 2026Hamburger SV 2–2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 13 September 2025Bayern München 5–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 10 March 2018Bayern Munich 6–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 21 October 2017Hamburger SV 0–1 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- 25 February 2017Bayern Munich 8–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 24 September 2016Hamburger SV 0–1 Bayern MunichBundesliga
Leading scorers: Hamburger SV and Bayern München
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise63
- H. Kane48
- L. Díaz41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hamburger SV a 0% chance of the title and Bayern München 73.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Hamburger SV against 2.95 for Bayern München. Hamburger SV's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.76/0.68 for Bayern München.
How the model reaches 71% for Bayern München to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Bayern München to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Hamburger SV's ratings add 18 points and Bayern München's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 71%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Hamburger SV's ratings50%+18
- Bayern München's ratings71%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Hamburger SV at home · Bayern München away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Hamburger SVBayern München
Hamburger SV are 11th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 6th and 18th so far); Bayern München are 1st after 9 (between 1st and 4th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Hamburger SV 9, Bayern München 9.
Hamburger SV score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Bayern München have let in 1 there.
Bayern München score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Hamburger SV have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hamburger SV
- at Union Berlin5 Dec · Bundesligawin 34%
- vs FC Schalke 0411 Dec · Bundesligawin 39%
- at SV Elversberg19 Dec · Bundesligawin 24%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen10 Jan · Bundesligawin 24%
Bayern München
- vs SC Paderborn 074 Dec · Bundesligawin 75%
- vs Slavia Praha8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 57%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim13 Dec · Bundesligawin 65%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.