2 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland Superliga prediction & result

New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Aarhus 0-2 FC Midtjylland.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aarhus, 28% draw, 30% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aarhus at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aarhus0%Draw1%FC Midtjylland99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Friday Etimassist: Philip Billing
45'
🔁Pedro Bravoout: Sofus Johannesen
56'
⚽Denil Castilloassist: Friday Etim
🔁Mikael Andersonout: James Bogere
59'
🔁Mouhammade Camaraout: Luka Callø
59'
🔁Stefen Tchamcheout: Janni Serra
59'
67'
🔁Martin Erlicout: Victor Bak Jensen
67'
🔁Cho Gue-sungout: Stanley Iheanacho
Colin Rosler
68'
🔁Colin Roslerout: Rasmus Carstensen
72'
81'
Kjell-Arik Wätjen
81'
🔁Friday Etimout: Edward Chilufya
🔁Tobias Bech Kristensenout: Sebastian Jorgensen
81'
85'
🔁Beni Juniorout: Abdou Aziz Ndiaye
Magnus Knudsen
87'
89'
Philip Billing
90+2'
Rasmus Kristensen

Match stats — Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland

58%Possession42%
18Shots14
3On target7
8Corners5

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-4-3
  • 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
  • 25C. RöslerD
  • 44Mouhammade CamaraD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 26J. AndersenM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 10K. ArnstadM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 31T. BechF
  • 27S. TchamcheF
  • 23M. AndersonF
Substitutes
  • 29R. CarstensenD
  • 28J. BogereF
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 16J. JønssonM
  • 14T. MølgaardD
  • 13J. SerraF
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
  • 8S. JørgensenM
Coach: J. Poulsen
FC Midtjylland 4-5-1
  • 1E. ÓlafssonG
  • 5R. KristensenD
  • 6M. ErlićD
  • 3M. JensenD
  • 15B. Dje Bi DjeD
  • 10Cho Gue-SungM
  • 21D. CastilloM
  • 8P. BillingM
  • 19P. BravoM
  • 29K. WätjenM
  • 90F. EtimF
Substitutes
  • 33Alamara DjabiM
  • 17M. UhreF
  • 34N. A. AzizD
  • 18S. IheanachoF
  • 7Franculino DjúF
  • 14E. ChilufyaF
  • 25N. BakkerG
  • 55V. Bak JensenD
  • 27S. JohannesenM
Coach: M. Tullberg

Form going into Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland

Aarhus

  • L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
  • D2-2Odense23 August 2026

FC Midtjylland

  • D1-1away to Silkeborg30 August 2026
  • W1-0Randers FC23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Aarhus8044915-64
2FC Midtjylland8530168+818

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland

  • 26 April 2026Aarhus 0–0 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
  • 20 April 2026FC Midtjylland 2–1 AarhusSuperliga
  • 8 March 2026FC Midtjylland 1–1 AarhusDBU Pokalen
  • 12 February 2026Aarhus 0–1 FC MidtjyllandDBU Pokalen
  • 3 November 2025FC Midtjylland 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
  • 3 August 2025Aarhus 0–0 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga

Leading scorers: Aarhus and FC Midtjylland

Aarhus

  • J. Serra3 goals

FC Midtjylland

  • F. Etim3 goals2 assists
  • S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.