Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 0-2 FC Midtjylland.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aarhus, 28% draw, 30% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Aarhus at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland
Line-ups
- 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
- 25C. RöslerD
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 19E. KahlD
- 26J. AndersenM
- 4M. KnudsenM
- 10K. ArnstadM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 31T. BechF
- 27S. TchamcheF
- 23M. AndersonF
- 29R. CarstensenD
- 28J. BogereF
- 33Luka CalløD
- 1J. HansenG
- 16J. JønssonM
- 14T. MølgaardD
- 13J. SerraF
- 7M. SolbakkenM
- 8S. JørgensenM
- 1E. ÓlafssonG
- 5R. KristensenD
- 6M. ErlićD
- 3M. JensenD
- 15B. Dje Bi DjeD
- 10Cho Gue-SungM
- 21D. CastilloM
- 8P. BillingM
- 19P. BravoM
- 29K. WätjenM
- 90F. EtimF
- 33Alamara DjabiM
- 17M. UhreF
- 34N. A. AzizD
- 18S. IheanachoF
- 7Franculino DjúF
- 14E. ChilufyaF
- 25N. BakkerG
- 55V. Bak JensenD
- 27S. JohannesenM
Form going into Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland
Aarhus
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
- L1-3Benfica27 August 2026
- D2-2Odense23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
FC Midtjylland
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Silkeborg30 August 2026
- W4-1away to HNK Rijeka27 August 2026
- W1-0Randers FC23 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Rijeka20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby16 August 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Midtjylland had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aarhus | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 15 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 17 | +12 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland
- 26 April 2026Aarhus 0–0 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 20 April 2026FC Midtjylland 2–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 8 March 2026FC Midtjylland 1–1 AarhusDBU Pokalen
- 12 February 2026Aarhus 0–1 FC MidtjyllandDBU Pokalen
- 3 November 2025FC Midtjylland 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 3 August 2025Aarhus 0–0 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and FC Midtjylland
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra50
FC Midtjylland
GoalsAssists
- F. Etim63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Midtjylland won 2–0 at Aarhus. The model had leaned towards a win for Aarhus at 42% and given a win for FC Midtjylland 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Friday Etim 11' for FC Midtjylland, Denil Castillo 56' for FC Midtjylland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.