30 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Turan vs Sabah FA Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Tovuz
Referee: K. Rahimov
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Turan 3-2 Sabah FA.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Turan, 30% draw, 47% Sabah FA — fair odds of 4.35, 3.33 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sabah FA at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Turan96%Draw4%Sabah FA0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Du Queiroz
⚽Henrique Silva
28'
⚽Jo Batista
30'
46'
🔁K. Parrisout: A. McCarthy
46'
🔁R. Dashdamirovout: J. Mickels
56'
I. Lepinjica
🔁A. Jankovicout: R. Olabe
65'
66'
🔁O. Mbinaout: Carlos Eduardo
66'
🔁Du Queirozout: A. Isayev
⚽Jo Batista
67'
70'
⚽J. Mickels
🔁S. Beusnardout: D. Balau
76'
🔁Henrique Silvaout: D. Marandici
76'
81'
🔁C. Nwachukwuout: X. Severina
🔁R. Millerout: R. Mammadov
81'
🔁Jo Batistaout: D. Tavares
81'
87'
⚽X. Severina
R. Olabe
90+1'
90+2'
A. Zedadka
H. Hurtado
90+5'

Line-ups

Turan
  • 1O. Baklov
  • 5R. Miller
  • 21S. Beusnard
  • 3Henrique Silva
  • 23A. Serrano
  • 90Jo Batista
  • 77I. Wadji
  • 32H. Hurtado
  • 7J. Silva
  • 33F. Damjanovic
  • 28A. Jankovic
Substitutes
  • 35A. Kenyaykin
  • 13M. Haciyev
  • 4R. Mammadov
  • 17R. Sadykhov
  • 88F. Haciyev
  • 99S. Shafiyev
  • 15E. Hackman
  • 19R. Olabe
  • 25D. Marandici
Coach: Kurban Berdyev
Sabah FA
  • 92S. Pokatilov
  • 5R. Dashdamirov
  • 6A. Khaybulaev
  • 80A. Zedadka
  • 3S. Solvet
  • 27T. Puchacz
  • 13I. Lepinjica
  • 11K. Parris
  • 37Du Queiroz
  • 99O. Mbina
  • 8C. Nwachukwu
Substitutes
  • 94R. Mirzammadov
  • 17T. Mutallimov
  • 10A. Isayev
  • 9K. Aliyev
  • 20J. Mickels
  • 33Junior Almeida
  • 88R. Fernandes
  • 34X. Severina
  • 18Carlos Eduardo
Coach: Valdas Dambrauskas

Form going into Turan vs Sabah FA

Turan

Premyer Liqa

  • D1-1away to Neftchi Baku24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Imisli FK18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026

Sabah FA

Premyer Liqa

  • D0-0Qarabag25 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Qabala17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Turan11632128+421
3Sabah FA10631226+1621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Turan vs Sabah FA

  • 22 May 2026Turan 1–2 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
  • 13 December 2025Turan 1–3 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
  • 20 September 2025Sabah FA 2–0 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 12 April 2025Turan 2–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
  • 9 February 2025Sabah FA 2–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 3 December 2024Turan 2–2 Sabah FACup

Leading scorers: Turan and Sabah FA

Turan

No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Sabah FA

GoalsAssists

  • U. Rahmonaliyev10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Turan beat Sabah FA 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabah FA at 47% and given a win for Turan 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Henrique Silva 28' for Turan, Jo Batista 30' for Turan, Jo Batista 67' for Turan, J. Mickels 70' for Sabah FA, X. Severina 87' for Sabah FA.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Turan a 30.9% chance to finish in the top four: 40.6% after a win, 30.7% after a draw, 27.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.6%, 9.7 points higher than before the match.

For Sabah FA the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 64.9% going in: 69.3% after a win, 62.2% after a draw, 58.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.2%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Turan v Sabah FA has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 25% / 29% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 23% / 30% / 47%: the biggest move is Turan's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Turan win23%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Sabah FA win47%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.