Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Shabab 6-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Al Shabab, 22% draw, 58% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 5.00, 4.55 and 1.72.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DiawG
- 17Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al ThaniD
- 4T. JedvajD
- 55Ali Al BulayhiD
- 21Dhari Al AnaziD
- 11Daniel PodenceM
- 8J. BrownhillM
- 29Y. AdliM
- 10Y. CarrascoM
- 9Roger MartínezF
- 49Ricardo MathiasF
- 40Ali Al AsmariM
- 27Abdullah Al HawsawiD
- 12S. Al AnziD
- 33Mohammed Al MahasnehG
- 6Awad Al NashriM
- 24Abdulrahman Al ObudF
- 2Mohammed Al ShwirekhD
- 97Mourad KhodariF
- 37A. MatuqF
- 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
- 29Mohammed YousefD
- 46Rayane HamidouD
- 3IbañezD
- 31Saad YaslamD
- 6V. Atangana EdoaM
- 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 7TrincãoF
- 9Feras Al BrikanF
- 20Matheus GonçalvesF
- 62Abdullah AbdoG
- 87Ramez Al AttarM
- 11Meshal Al MutairiF
- 15Saeed BaattiaD
- 5Mohammed BakorD
- 4Makaya Ibrahima DiabyM
- 21Abdullah RadifF
- 13GalenoF
- 8E. SpertsyanM
Form going into Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Shabab
Pro League
- W3-1away to Al-Fateh22 October 2026
- D2-2Al-Faisaly FC19 October 2026
- W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League
- W4-1Al Khaleej Saihat23 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Fayha19 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Shabab went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Al Shabab scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al Shabab had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah won every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 13 February 2026Al Shabab 2–5 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 17 October 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al ShababPro League
- 11 May 2025Al Shabab 3–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 10 January 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–2 Al ShababPro League
- 11 May 2024Al Shabab 1–2 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 25 November 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah 0–0 Al ShababPro League
Leading scorers: Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Shabab
GoalsAssists
- Y. Carrasco61
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Shabab beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 6–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Ahli Jeddah at 58% and given a win for Al Shabab 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Ricardo Mathias 2' for Al Shabab, Yannick Carrasco 25' for Al Shabab, Roger Martínez (penalty) 37' for Al Shabab, Firas Al-Buraikan 40' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Ricardo Mathias 48' for Al Shabab, Yannick Carrasco (penalty) 66' for Al Shabab, Yannick Carrasco (penalty) 82' for Al Shabab. Sent off: Abdulrahman Al-Sanbi (Al-Ahli Jeddah) 22'. On expected goals it finished 4.38–0.95.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Shabab a 6.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.9% after a win, 4.4% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.9%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
For Al-Ahli Jeddah the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 71.1% going in: 74.4% after a win, 67.8% after a draw, 63.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.2%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.