30 October 2026, 14:50 UTC

Al Diriyah vs NEOM Pro League prediction & result

Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Al Diriyah 1-2 NEOM.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Al Diriyah, 33% draw, 38% NEOM — fair odds of 3.45, 3.03 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NEOM at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Diriyah0%Draw3%NEOM97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Idrissa Gueyeassist: Darwin Nuñez
17'
45'
•Mohannad Abu Taha
45+5'
⚽Saïd Benrahma (pen)
45'
🔁Abbas Al Hassanout: Faisal Al-Ghamdi
64'
🔁Georgios Masourasout: Alexandre Lacazette
64'
🔁Islam Ahmed Hawsawiout: Muhanad Al Saad
68'
⚽Alexandre Lacazetteassist: Saïd Benrahma
🔁Adil Boulbinaout: Meshari Fahad Al Nemer
70'
🔁Taher Wadiout: Abdulaziz Al Faraj
70'
82'
🔁Saïd Benrahmaout: Abdulaziz Al-Othman
82'
🔁Khalifah Al-Dawsariout: Mohammed Al-Burayk
🔁Hussain Al-Sabiyaniout: Mohammed Dheban
85'
🔁Óscar Rodríguezout: Hussain Al Qahtani
85'
90+8'
Muhanad Al Saad

Match stats — Al Diriyah vs NEOM

41%Possession59%
20Shots15
5On target5
2Corners5
1.3xG1.84

Goals against chances

Al Diriyah1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
NEOM2 from 1.84 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Diriyah 4-2-3-1
  • 97Amin Al BukhariG
  • 12T. WadiD
  • 19B. DjimsitiD
  • 99C. MbembaD
  • 16Hussain Al SibyaniD
  • 5I. GueyeM
  • 20E. MillotM
  • 17C. DiandyM
  • 14Óscar RodríguezM
  • 10A. BoulbinaM
  • 29D. NúñezF
Substitutes
  • 2Abdulaziz Al FarajD
  • 75Meshari Al NemerF
  • 52Hussain Al QahtaniM
  • 34Mansour Hibatullah Al SibyaniG
  • 32Abdullah Al ZaidF
  • 21Mohammed Dheban
  • 87Qassem LajamiD
  • 78Khalid Al AsiriD
  • 6Sultan Al FarhanM
Coach: Bruno Lage
NEOM 4-4-2
  • 81Luís MaximianoG
  • 4Khalifah Al DawsariD
  • 5M. SarrD
  • 44N. ZézéD
  • 27Islam HawsawiD
  • 14Khalil Al AbsiM
  • 15Abdulmalik Al OyayariM
  • 6A. Al HassanM
  • 19Mohannad Abu TahaM
  • 10S. BenrahmaF
  • 7G. MasourasF
Substitutes
  • 91A. LacazetteF
  • 8Faisal Al GhamdiM
  • 55Muhammad Al DosariD
  • 2Mohammed Al BuraykD
  • 9Abdulaziz Al OthmanF
  • 75Khalid Al RammahD
  • 77Muhannad Al SaadF
  • 53Geovanny Balanta OlivarM
  • 33Abdulrahman DagririG
Coach: C. Galtier

Form going into Al Diriyah vs NEOM

Al Diriyah

Pro League

  • L0-2away to Al-Ittihad23 October 2026
  • W1-0Al Riyadh20 October 2026
  • D1-1Al Taawon17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026

NEOM

Pro League

  • W2-0Abha24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Al-Nassr20 October 2026
  • L0-1Al-Ettifaq17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Al Diriyah failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al Diriyah conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Al Diriyah had two goals or fewer.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for NEOM had two goals or fewer.
  • NEOM failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • NEOM conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Al Diriyah124351013-315
5NEOM127141810+822

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al Diriyah and NEOM

Al Diriyah

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

NEOM

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lacazette72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NEOM won 2–1 at Al Diriyah. The model had made a win for NEOM its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Idrissa Gueye 17' for Al Diriyah, Saïd Benrahma (penalty) 45+5' for NEOM, Alexandre Lacazette 68' for NEOM. On expected goals it finished 1.30–1.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NEOM a 5.5% chance to finish in the top four: 6.9% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 3.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.9%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Diriyah v NEOM has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 32% / 31% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 33% / 38%: the biggest move is Al Diriyah's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Al Diriyah win29%▼ −3
  2. Draw33%▲ +2
  3. NEOM win38%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.